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Permitida a distribuição e reprodução desde que citada a fonte Prospective Foresight in Brazil: An overview and cases Claudio Porto CEO Macroplan, Prospectiva,

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Apresentação em tema: "Permitida a distribuição e reprodução desde que citada a fonte Prospective Foresight in Brazil: An overview and cases Claudio Porto CEO Macroplan, Prospectiva,"— Transcrição da apresentação:

1 Permitida a distribuição e reprodução desde que citada a fonte Prospective Foresight in Brazil: An overview and cases Claudio Porto CEO Macroplan, Prospectiva, Estratégia & Gestão MUTUAL LEARNING WORKSHOP ON SCENARIOS CGEE, Brasília (Brazil), 5 December 2012

2 Claudio Porto CEO of Macroplan – Prospectiva, Estratégia & Gestão 30 years working on prospective foresight Macroplan is recognized in the Brazilian marketplace as one of the most experienced consulting Brazilian companies in prospective studies and strategic management Almost 80 prospective studies produced to date

3 Contents The evolution of Prospective Foresight in Brazil Five emblematic cases 1.Scenarios of the Brazilian Economy, BNDES ( ) 2.Scenarios about the future of the Amazon Region (ELETRONORTE) (1988, 1998) 3.Introduction and Consolidation of the use of Scenarios in Petrobras (1989, 1992) 4.Scenarios in the State of Minas Gerais ( ) 5.Brazil in transition: current landscape and future trends (2011) Summary and conclusions

4 The Evolution of Prospective Foresight in Brazil - From the 1970s to today Until the 1970s: embryos (IDESP and IUPERJ) 1980s: emergence (the precursors) 1990s: dissemination 2000 to today: generalization in large companies or institutions

5 The choice of cases Criteria: the relevance of its impacts, using an elegant application of the idea of the Greek Triangle built by Michel Godet (1991) T HE G REEK T RIANGLE A NTICIPATION (Reason) A CTION (Accomplishment) A PPROPRIATION (Desire)

6 The 1980s

7 1980s - The Brazilian Context 1. External crisis (including the consequences of the oil prices shock in our economy and default of the Brazilian external debt) 2. Low economic growth (the lost decade, average 1.55% /year) and social crisis (39% of population in poverty in 1989) 3. Hyperinflation (1,973% in 1989) 4. Economy: closed and technologically outdated 5. Politics: transition from a military regimen to democracy.

8 First Case BNDES economy scenarios (1984) » The National Bank for Economic and Social Development – BNDES is currently the main financial institution for long-term investments in all segments of the Brazilian economy. In 2011 the ampount of its disbursements was about US$ 70 billion » 1984: BNDES implemented a strategic planning process that included the use of two macroeconomic scenarios: A DJUSTMENT S CENARIO (T HE OFFICIAL VISION ) Scrolling annual external debt Economy: continuity of restrictive policies in accordance with the IMF A DJUSTMENT S CENARIO (T HE OFFICIAL VISION ) Scrolling annual external debt Economy: continuity of restrictive policies in accordance with the IMF E CONOMIC GROWTH S CENARIO External debt renegotiation in the long term and with better conditions Economic policy: resumption of development E CONOMIC GROWTH S CENARIO External debt renegotiation in the long term and with better conditions Economic policy: resumption of development C OMPETITIVE INTEGRATION SCENARIO Updated industrial structure Open and competitive economy External debt renegotiation in the long term and with better conditions C OMPETITIVE INTEGRATION SCENARIO Updated industrial structure Open and competitive economy External debt renegotiation in the long term and with better conditions Confidencial Information leak High repercussion in society 1º

9 First Case BNDES economy scenarios (1984) - Impacts 1º ANTICIPATION » The possibility of a new cycle of economic growth APPROPRIATION » By the elected President of the Republic (1989), supported by a strong national desire to overcome recession ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES » Beginning of the openness of the Brazilian economy

10 Second Case (Part one) The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988) 2º » ELETRONORTE is a state-owned company that generates and provides electric power to the nine states of the Amazon Region and also provides energy to buyers from other regions of the country. Total installed capacity = 9.294,33 megawatts and transmission systems have over 9.888,02 km of lines. » Mission: Acting in energy markets in an integrated, cost-effective and sustainable way A MAZON R EGION = 49,29% B RAZIL ´ S TOTAL AREA

11 Second Case (Part one) The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988) 2º » Aim: supporting its assessments of demand for electric energy and investment plan. » Three scenarios of Amazon Region from » Two important contributions of this study » introduced the embryo of the sustainable development concept increasing influence in the companys decisions » Introduced the use of scenarios to prospect the market of electrical energy in Brazil instead of extrapolative forecasts A pioneering initiative that becomes standard in the electrical sector in the 1990s. I NTEGRATION WITH THE N ATIONAL P ROJECT F OCUS ON E NDOGENOUS D EVELOPMENT E COLOGIC AND C ULTURAL R ESTRICTION

12 The 1990s

13 1990s - The Brazilian Context 1. Stabilization of the economy after the Real Plan in Continuous opening of the Brazilian economy 3. Privatization in several economic sectors, end of monopolies and increased competition 4. Modernization of public institutions (remarkable: regulation) 5. Increased soundness of the financial system 6. Consolidation of democracy

14 Third Case Scenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992, 1996) 3º » Petrobras is a publicly traded joint-stock corporation whose main shareholder is the Government of Brazil. It acts as an energy company in the following sectors: exploration and production, refinement, marketing and transportation of oil and natural gas, petrochemicals, distribution of oil, electricity, biofuels and other renewable energy sources. The company leads the Brazilian oil sector. » Petrobras Business Plan : investments totaling US$ billion (R$ 416,5 billion) - an average of US $ 47,3 billion per year. » Strategic planning was formally adopted by PETROBRAS in 1989 and based on scenario analysis.

15 Third Case Scenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992) 3º » A participative process » The scenarios and strategic Options in 1992 (Strategic Plan ) P ETROBRAS S CENARIOS G LOBAL S CENARIOS AND F OCUS ON O IL I NDUSTRY 1.Trans-nationalization - hegemony of big private oil companies 2.Fragmented Cooperation - shared hegemony in the petroleum industry N ATIONAL S CENARIOS AND F OCUS ON O IL I NDUSTRY Neoliberal Permanency of the crisis Welfare state P ETROBRAS S CENARIOS G LOBAL S CENARIOS AND F OCUS ON O IL I NDUSTRY 1.Trans-nationalization - hegemony of big private oil companies 2.Fragmented Cooperation - shared hegemony in the petroleum industry N ATIONAL S CENARIOS AND F OCUS ON O IL I NDUSTRY Neoliberal Permanency of the crisis Welfare state S TRATEGIC O PTIONS Consolidation and strengthening in the national market Expansion of international operations Integration, competitiveness and business excellence S TRATEGIC O PTIONS Consolidation and strengthening in the national market Expansion of international operations Integration, competitiveness and business excellence

16 Third Case Scenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992) 3º ANTICIPATION » Loss of monopoly and emergence of competition » Increasing uncertainty and new challenges in the industry APPROPRIATION » Assimilation of scenarios and prospective methods by a large portion of the senior management and technical staff of the company ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES » Preparation of the company and its managers and professionals to deal successfully with the end of monopoly, increasing competition and higher uncertainty » PETROBRAS developed a skilled decision making process when faced with uncertainties. Today, the construction of scenarios, which started in the company over 23 years ago, is part of their culture and strategic management process

17 » In 1998, ELETRONORTE decided to revisit the 10 years old prospective study » The prospects of 1989 against the real events of the previous 10 years were evaluated » Four scenarios were devised for the Amazon Region looking into the following 20 years: Second Case (Part two) The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1998) 2º S USTAINABLE D EVELOPMENT R EGIONAL D EVELOPMENT, M ODERATE I NTEGRATION A ND B ETTER Q UALITY O F L IFE E CONOMIC G ROWTH AT THE EXPENSE OF E NVIRONMENTAL D EGRADATION S TAGNATION AND P OVERTY

18 Second Case (Part two) The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988) - Impacts 2º ANTICIPATION » A systemic view of the main issues and challenges resulting from the economic exploitation of the Amazon Region APPROPRIATON » Relevant contribution to a gradual formation of a political convergence concerning the sustainable development of the Amazon Region. » Recognizing of the potential of economic exploitation of biodiversity ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES » The search for new sustainable production standards for the Amazon Region

19 Structural Analysis Retrospective Study Future Conditioning Factors Selection of Uncertainties Elaboration of Hypotheses about the Future Consistency Analysis of Plausible Scenarios Most Plausible Scenarios Impact- Uncertainty Matrix Morphological Assessment Matrix Mapping of Actors and their Alliances Construction Process of the Amazon Region Scenarios

20 Structural Analysis | Amazon Region

21 Morphological Analisys - Amazon Region CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIESHYPOTHESES Liberalization / Regulation Fragmentation / Integration Instability / Stability REGULATED AND STABLE INTEGRATION INTEGRATED LIBERALIZATION WITH UNSTABLE FINANCIAL BALANCE FRAGMENTED AND UNSTABLE LIBERALIZATION Global integration of Brazil CONSOLIDATED MERCOSUR AND FTAA CONSOLIDATED MERCOSUR AND PARTIALLY IMPLEMENTED FTAA MINIMUM MERCOSUR AND BROAD FTAA PARTIALLY IMPLEMENTED MERCOSUR AND FTAA Decrease in raw materials contentRAPIDMODERATESLOW Global expansion of tourismRAPIDMODERATESLOW Role of the State Economic growth Instability / Stability STABILITY WITH HIGH GROWTH AND ACTIVE REGULATING STATE STABILITY WITH MEDIUM GROWTH AND LIBERAL STATE STABILITY WITH MEDIUM GROWTH AND SOCIAL PROMOTING STATE INSTABILITY WITH LOW GROWTH AND DISORGANIZED STATE Spatial reconfiguration of the Brazilian economy SMALL DIVERSIFICATIONMODERATE DIVERSIFICATIONHIGH CONCENTRATIONMODERATE CONCENTRATION Structuring investmentsBROAD AND ARTICULATED MODERATE AND ARTICULATED MODERATE AND DISCONNECTED LIMITED Environmental ManagementINTENSE AND EFFECTIVEMODERATE AND EFFECTIVENORMATIVE Development of Sustainable Technology RAPIDMODERATESLOW Degradation of natural resourcesLOW IMPACTMODERATE IMPACTHIGH IMPACT Pan Amazonian integrationBROADMODERATELIMITED CORE IDEAS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT High growth with low environmental impact and broad integration REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND QUALITY OF LIFE Medium economic growth with moderate impact and moderate integration ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION Medium economic growth with high environmental impact and moderate integration STAGNATION AND POVERTY Economic stagnation with high environmental impact and limited integration

22 2000s to Today

23 2000s to Today – The Brazilian Context 1.Prolonged economic stability 2.Overcoming of external restrictions 3.Increasing social inclusion: Brazil, a medium class country 4.Increasing insertion of Brazil into global economy 5.Brazil emerges as an attractive land of economic opportunities 6.New challenges and uncertainties facing the future of the country in the medium and long terms

24 Fourth Case Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007) 4º To turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in Strategic Guidelines Projects Strategic Guidelines Projects A REA : 586,528 KM ² ( LARGER THAN F RANCE ) P OPULATION : NEARLY 20 MILLION PEOPLE E CONOMY : THIRD AMONG BRAZILIAN STATES

25 Fourth Case Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007) 4º To turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in Strategic Guidelines Projects Strategic Guidelines Projects A REA : 586,528 KM ² ( LARGER THAN F RANCE ) P OPULATION : NEARLY 20 MILLION PEOPLE E CONOMY : THIRD AMONG BRAZILIAN STATES Scenarios for Minas Gerais State II CONQUEST of a better future CONQUEST of a better future IIII WASTE of opportunities WASTE of opportunities IIIIII OVERCOMING adversities OVERCOMING adversities IVIV DECADENCE and impoverishment DECADENCE and impoverishment Sustained development of domestic economy Domestic economy with intermittent growth Brazil Minas Gerais environment Creative Competitive Inclusive Minas Gerais environment Conservative Inefficient Excluding Minas Gerais

26 Fourth Case Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007) 4º To turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in Strategic Guidelines Projects Strategic Guidelines Projects A REA : 586,528 KM ² ( LARGER THAN F RANCE ) P OPULATION : NEARLY 20 MILLION PEOPLE E CONOMY : THIRD AMONG BRAZILIAN STATES I NVESTMENT &B USINESS N ETWORK C ITIES E QUITY AND W ELFARE E QUITY AND W ELFARE E NVIRONMENTAL S USTAINABILITY C OMPETITIVE T ERRITORIAL I NTEGRATION I NTEGRATED P ERSPECTIVE OF THE H UMAN C APITAL S TATE FOR RESULTS S TATE FOR RESULTS

27 Fourth Case Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007) 4º Strategic Guidelines Projects Strategic Guidelines Projects A REA : 586,528 KM ² ( LARGER THAN F RANCE ) P OPULATION : NEARLY 20 MILLION PEOPLE E CONOMY : THIRD AMONG BRAZILIAN STATES To turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in A FTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FOUR SCENARIOS, THE FIRST ONE OF THEM WAS CHOSEN AS A REFERENCE FOR THE CREATION OF THE V ISION OF THE FUTURE FOR M INAS G ERAIS OVER A PERIOD OF 20 YEARS : TO TURN M INAS G ERAIS INTO THE BEST STATE TO LIVE IN A FTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FOUR SCENARIOS, THE FIRST ONE OF THEM WAS CHOSEN AS A REFERENCE FOR THE CREATION OF THE V ISION OF THE FUTURE FOR M INAS G ERAIS OVER A PERIOD OF 20 YEARS : TO TURN M INAS G ERAIS INTO THE BEST STATE TO LIVE IN

28 Fourth Case Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007) 4º To turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in A REA : 586,528 KM ² ( LARGER THAN F RANCE ) P OPULATION : NEARLY 20 MILLION PEOPLE E CONOMY : THIRD AMONG BRAZILIAN STATES Strategic Guidelines Projects Strategic Guidelines Projects T HE VISION WAS THEN SPLIT INTO : S TRATEGIC GUIDELINES P ORTFOLIO OF STRUCTURING AND LEVERAGING PROJECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE S TATE T HE VISION WAS THEN SPLIT INTO : S TRATEGIC GUIDELINES P ORTFOLIO OF STRUCTURING AND LEVERAGING PROJECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE S TATE

29 Fourth Case Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007) 4º ANTICIPATION » The threat of losing many opportunities unless making severe adjustments in the state and its government APPROPRIATION » Choice of strategies aligned with the scenarios » Realization of the urgent need for modernization of the state government toward higher efficiency ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES » Public policies aligned with the scenarios » The shock of management in state government

30 Brazil in transition - current landscape and future trends Insertion of Brazil in global economy I NTENSE & WIDE M ODERATE & SELECTIVE L IMITED, MODERATE W IDE & INCREASING A. B ACK TO THE 70´ S B. C HINESE CAPITALISM ON B RAZILIAN WAY D. A NEW ISOLATION C. A CLASH OF ORTHODOX CAPITALISM Presence of the State in the economy

31 Summary and Conclusions

32 BNDES (1984) ELETRONORTE (1988, 1998) PETROBRAS (1989, 1992, 1996) MINAS GERAIS ( ) Anticipation The possibility of a new cycle of economic growth The anticipation of political, economic, and environmental issues resulting from the economic exploitation of the Amazon Region Loss of monopoly and emergence of competition Increasing uncertainty The threat of losing many opportunities unless making severe adjustments in the state and its government Appropriation By the elected President (1989) A strong national desire to overcome recession Contribution to a gradual formation of a political convergence concerning Amazon regions biggest challenge. The potential of economic exploitation of biodiversity Assimilation of prospective methods by a large portion of the senior management and technical staff of the company Choice of strategies aligned with the scenarios Realization of the urgent need for modernization of the state government toward higher efficiency Action The beginning of the openness of the Brazilian economy The search for new production standards on sustainable base Preparation of managers and professionals to deal successfully with the end of monopoly, competition and higher uncertainty Public policies aligned with the scenarios The shock of management in state government

33 Conclusions The use and dissemination of prospective foresight in Brazil made significant progress during the last 30 years. Unfortunately, we are still missing a long term prospective and strategic view for the country. We – society, state, companies – are excessively focused on short term tactic questions. However, there has been an increasing demand for a long term view from new leaderships. Our current development stage itself requires such view. I am, therefore, optimistic: this is likely the decade when Brazil – as a nation and a society – will pursue and build a long term vision of development. And all of us, with the methods and tools of prospective foresight, will be able to make relevant contributions to this project. Thank you.

34 References

35 Remarkable Prospective Projects supported by Macroplan 1.Cenários do ambiente de atuação das micro e pequenas empresas do Rio de Janeiro (2012) 2.Análise de tendências de longo prazo e elaboração do Plano Mineiro de Desenvolvimento Integrado horizonte 2030 (2011) 3.Quatro cenários da cidade de Belo Horizonte (2009) 4.Cenários do Ambiente de Atuação do do Sistema Eletrobras 2020 (2010) 5.Quatro Cenários Econômicos para o Brasil Cenários Exploratórios do Rio de Janeiro no Horizonte (2007) 7.Cenários Exploratórios de Minas Gerais no Horizonte (2007) 8.Cenários do ambiente de atuação das organizações públicas de PD&I do Agronegócio no Horizonte 2023 (Embrapa, 2007) 9.Três Cenários para o Desenvolvimento do Estado do Espírito Santo (2006) 10.O Ensino Superior no Mundo e no Brasil – Condicionantes, Tendências e Cenários para o Horizonte (2003) 11. Cenários de Desenvolvimento para a elaboração do Plano Estratégico do Sistema Petrobras – (2003 – 2004) 12.Construção de Cenários para o Setor Energético e o segmento de Óleo e Gás e elaboração da Visão de Futuro do Projeto Tendências Tecnológicas para o CTPETRO – Fundo Setorial do Petróleo (Mar-Jul, 2002). 13.Atualização dos Cenários Sócio-Econômicos e Energéticos da Amazônia para o Horizonte 1998/ ELETRONORTE (Out, Abril, 2001) 14.Elaboração dos cenários focalizados no mercado de distribuição de combustíveis no Brasil – horizonte 2002/2006 (2001) 15.Mapeamento das Incertezas e Construção dos Cenários do Mercado de Energia Elétrica – Horizonte ( 2001). 16.Cenários da Educação a Distância no Brasil – Horizonte 2010; como etapa integrante do processo de planejamento estratégico do desenvolvimento da Educação à Distância do SENAC São Paulo para o horizonte (Fev-Abril 2000) 17.Cenários do setor de Telecomunicações no Brasil no Horizonte 1996/2010 para a EMBRATEL (1996) 18.Consultoria metodológica à Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República na construção de Cenários Exploratórios do Brasil no Horizonte 2020 (Jan - Jun, 1996) 19.Consultoria à elaboração de análise prospectiva e Cenários de Educação Profissional e do ambiente de atuação do SENAI – Horizonte ( 1995) 20.Cenários para o Mato Grosso do Sul no horizonte (Mar-Set, 1995)

36 Bibliography BELFORT-SANTOS – Avaliação do Modelo de Planejamento Estratégico de uma Empresa - O Caso Petrobras. Dissertação de Mestrado. Departamento de Engenharia Industrial – PUC-Rio, BNDES – BNDES Trimestral, BNDES: 28 de janeiro de Disponível em Acessado em www.bndes.gov.br BNDES – Cenários para a economia brasileira até o ano BNDES, Depto. de Planejamento. Rio de Janeiro, BNDES – Cenários para a economia brasileira BNDES, Depto. de Planejamento. Rio de Janeiro: agosto, ELETRONORTE – Dez Anos de Cenários Exploratórios da Amazônia. Eletronorte, maio, ELETRONORTE – Cenários Socioenergéticos para a Amazônia – Eletronorte, janeiro, GODET, Michel. – Prospective et Planification Stratégique. Paris: Economica, GODET, Michel – De Lanticipation à laction - Manuel de Prospective et de Stratégie. Paris: Dunod, GODET, Michel & DURANCE, Philippe – Prospective Stratégique – Problèmes et Méthodes. Cahier du Lipsor nº 20, Janvier, 2007, 2ème édition. HEIJDEN, Kees Van Der – Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. England: John Wiley & Sons, KAHN, Herman & WIENER, Anthony – The Year The Hudson Institute, MARQUES, E. – Geração de cenários para o planejamento estratégico. BNDES, Depto. de Planejamento. Rio de Janeiro, maio, MARQUES, E. – Um modelo de geração de cenários em planejamento estratégico. In:Monteiro Filha, D. & Modenesi, R. (org.) – BNDES, um banco de idéias. 50 anos refletindo o Brasil. BNDES, Rio de Janeiro, p MOURÃO, Júlio – A Integração Competitiva e o Planejamento Estratégico no BNDES. Revista do BNDES, V. 1, Nº 2, pp 3-26, dez, MOURÃO, Júlio (coord.) – Vitória do Futuro - Plano estratégico da cidade Prefeitura de Vitória, PETROBRAS – Plano Estratégico de Negócios Disponível em Acessado em www.petrobras.com.br PMDI – Plano Mineiro de Desenvolvimento Integrado Disponível em: Acessado em Acessado em PMDI – Plano Mineiro de Desenvolvimento Integrado de Minas Gerais Disponível em: Acessado em Acessado em PORTO, Claudio – Cenários no Brasil, Seminário Internacional MILLENIUM: Prospectiva e Estratégia para a Era da Nova Economia. Rio de Janeiro, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, set, PORTO, Claudio – Macrocenários da Amazônia 2000 – PARCERIAS ESTRATÉGICAS, N. 12 ISSN , setembro, PORTO, Claudio e GIAMBIAGI, Fabio, orgs – Propostas para um Brasil Melhor no Ano do Bicentenário PREFEITURA DE BELO HORIZONTE – Planejamento Estratégico de Belo Horizonte 2030 – A Cidade que Queremos. Belo Horizonte, REVISTA SENHOR – Sem Mudança o Brasil Acaba. São Paulo, Brasil, Nº 175, julho, SAE/PR – Cenários Exploratórios do Brasil Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República. Brasília, setembro, SAE/PR – Projeto Brasil 3 Tempos – Cenários Prospectivos. Cadernos NAE, Nov, Disponível em Acessado em www.sae.gov.br WACK, Pierre – Cenários: Águas Desconhecidas Adiante. Harvard Business Review, Boston, Set/Out WACK, Pierre – Cenários: Atravessando as Torrentes. Harvard Business Review, Boston, Nov/Dez 1985.


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