Apresentação em tema: "Prospective Foresight in Brazil: An overview and cases"— Transcrição da apresentação:
1 Prospective Foresight in Brazil: An overview and cases MUTUAL LEARNING WORKSHOP ON SCENARIOSCGEE, Brasília (Brazil), 5 December 2012Prospective Foresight in Brazil: An overview and casesClaudio PortoCEO Macroplan, Prospectiva, Estratégia & Gestão
2 Claudio Porto CEO of Macroplan – Prospectiva, Estratégia & Gestão 30 years working on prospective foresightMacroplan is recognized in the Brazilian marketplace as one of the most experienced consulting Brazilian companies in prospective studies and strategic managementAlmost 80 prospective studies produced to date
3 Contents The evolution of Prospective Foresight in Brazil Five emblematic casesScenarios of the Brazilian Economy, BNDES ( )Scenarios about the future of the Amazon Region (ELETRONORTE) (1988, )Introduction and Consolidation of the use of Scenarios in Petrobras (1989, )Scenarios in the State of Minas Gerais ( )Brazil in transition: current landscape and future trends (2011)Summary and conclusions
4 The Evolution of Prospective Foresight in Brazil - From the 1970’s to today Until the 1970’s: embryos (IDESP and IUPERJ)1980’s: emergence (the precursors)1990’s: dissemination2000 to today: generalization in large companies or institutions
5 The choice of casesCriteria: the relevance of its impacts, using an elegant application of the idea of the “Greek Triangle” built by Michel Godet (1991)Anticipation (Reason)The Greek TriangleAppropriation (Desire)Action (Accomplishment)
7 1980’s - The Brazilian Context External crisis (including the consequences of the oil prices shock in our economy and default of the Brazilian external debt)Low economic growth (“the lost decade”, average 1.55% /year) and social crisis (39% of population in poverty in 1989)Hyperinflation (1,973% in 1989)Economy: closed and technologically outdatedPolitics: transition from a military regimen to democracy.
8 First Case BNDES economy scenarios (1984) 1ºThe National Bank for Economic and Social Development – BNDES is currently the main financial institution for long-term investments in all segments of the Brazilian economy. In the ampount of it’s disbursements was about US$ 70 billion1984: BNDES implemented a strategic planning process that included the use of two macroeconomic scenarios:Adjustment Scenario (The “official” vision)Scrolling annual external debtEconomy: continuity of restrictive policies in accordance with the IMFEconomic growth ScenarioExternal debt renegotiation in the long term and with better conditionsEconomic policy: resumption of developmentConfidencialInformation leakHigh repercussion in societyCompetitive integration scenarioUpdated industrial structureOpen and competitive economyExternal debt renegotiation in the long term and with better conditions
9 First Case BNDES economy scenarios (1984) - Impacts 1ºANTICIPATIONThe possibility of a new cycle of economic growthAPPROPRIATIONBy the elected President of the Republic (1989), supported by a strong national desire to overcome recessionACTION AND CONSEQUENCESBeginning of the openness of the Brazilian economy
10 Second Case (Part one) The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988) 2ºELETRONORTE is a state-owned company that generates and provides electric power to the nine states of the Amazon Region and also provides energy to buyers from other regions of the country. Total installed capacity = ,33 megawatts and transmission systems have over 9.888,02 km of lines.Mission: Acting in energy markets in an integrated, cost-effective and sustainable wayAmazon Region = 49,29% Brazil´s total area
11 Second Case (Part one) The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988) 2ºAim: supporting its assessments of demand for electric energy and investment plan.Three scenarios of Amazon Region fromTwo important contributions of this studyintroduced the embryo of the sustainable development concept increasing influence in the company’s decisionsIntroduced the use of scenarios to prospect the market of electrical energy in Brazil instead of extrapolative forecasts A pioneering initiative that becomes standard in the electrical sector in the 1990’s.Integration with the National ProjectFocus on Endogenous DevelopmentEcologic and Cultural Restriction123
13 1990’s - The Brazilian Context Stabilization of the economy after the Real Plan in 1994Continuous opening of the Brazilian economyPrivatization in several economic sectors, end of monopolies and increased competitionModernization of public institutions (remarkable: regulation)Increased soundness of the financial systemConsolidation of democracyHow the IMF helps to promote financial system soundnessThe IMF promotes financial system soundness in member countries through its ongoing multilateral and bilateral surveillance, the design of its lending programs, and the provision of technical assistance.Technical assistance provided by the IMF helps member countries to implement specific reforms to develop and strengthen their financial system. Such assistance may include training and advice on improving monetary and fiscal management; foreign exchange and capital market development; the design of payment systems and deposit insurance arrangements; the development of the legal, regulatory and supervisory frameworks governing the activities of financial institutions; and strategies for crisis management and resolution.
14 Third Case Scenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992, 1996) 3ºPetrobras is a publicly traded joint-stock corporation whose main shareholder is the Government of Brazil. It acts as an energy company in the following sectors: exploration and production, refinement, marketing and transportation of oil and natural gas, petrochemicals, distribution of oil, electricity, biofuels and other renewable energy sources. The company leads the Brazilian oil sector.Petrobras Business Plan : investments totaling US$ billion (R$ 416,5 billion) - an average of US $ 47,3 billion per year.Strategic planning was formally adopted by PETROBRAS in 1989 and based on scenario analysis.
15 Third Case Scenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992) 3ºA participative processThe scenarios and strategic Options in 1992 (Strategic Plan )Petrobras’ ScenariosGlobal Scenarios and Focus on Oil IndustryTrans-nationalization - hegemony of big private oil companiesFragmented Cooperation - shared hegemony in the petroleum industryNational Scenarios and Focus on Oil IndustryNeoliberalPermanency of the crisisWelfare stateStrategic OptionsConsolidation and strengthening in the national marketExpansion of international operationsIntegration, competitiveness and business excellence
16 Third Case Scenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992) 3ºANTICIPATIONLoss of monopoly and emergence of competitionIncreasing uncertainty and new challenges in the industryAPPROPRIATIONAssimilation of scenarios and prospective methods by a large portion of the senior management and technical staff of the companyACTION AND CONSEQUENCESPreparation of the company and its managers and professionals to deal successfully with the end of monopoly, increasing competition and higher uncertaintyPETROBRAS developed a skilled decision making process when faced with uncertainties. Today, the construction of scenarios, which started in the company over 23 years ago, is part of their culture and strategic management process
17 Second Case (Part two) The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1998) 2ºIn 1998, ELETRONORTE decided to revisit the 10 years old prospective studyThe prospects of 1989 against the real events of the previous 10 years were evaluatedFour scenarios were devised for the Amazon Region looking into the following 20 years:Sustainable DevelopmentRegional Development, Moderate Integration And Better Quality Of LifeEconomic Growth at the expense of Environmental Degradation123Stagnation and Poverty4
18 Second Case (Part two) The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988) - Impacts2ºANTICIPATIONA systemic view of the main issues and challenges resulting from the economic exploitation of the Amazon RegionAPPROPRIATONRelevant contribution to a gradual formation of a political convergence concerning the sustainable development of the Amazon Region.Recognizing of the potential of economic exploitation of biodiversityACTION AND CONSEQUENCESThe search for new sustainable production standards for the Amazon Region
19 Construction Process of the Amazon Region Scenarios 1998-2020 Mapping of Actors and their AlliancesStructural AnalysisFuture Conditioning FactorsSelection of UncertaintiesElaboration of Hypotheses about the FutureConsistency Analysis of Plausible ScenariosMost Plausible ScenariosRetrospective StudyImpact-Uncertainty MatrixMorphological Assessment Matrix
20 Structural Analysis | Amazon Region - 2000-2020 102030405060701008090DependencyMotricityEnvironmental policyAgrarian policyForeign trade policyNational defense policyIndianist PolicyRegional development policyPolicy for the education and science and technologyDynamism of the national economyDemand for natural resources and agricultural productsRegional demand for goods and services in the regionNon-registered economic activitiesDemand for bio-productsDemand for genetic informationScientificand technological capacity in the regionInformation technology and networkMigration flow into the regionNational population dynamicsThe role of the StateDynamics of the regional economyGlobal and national demand for energy-intensive productsGlobal and national demand for manufactured productsPublic expenditures and investments in the regionPrivate investments in the regionNational demand for eletric energyRegional demand for eletric energyProduction structureForm of exploration of natural resourcesTransportation supplyEnergy supplyCommunication supplyAvailability of natural resourcesEnergy policyRegional population dynamicsUrbanizationSocial and cultural standardsSocial statusAgricultural factorsContinental integrationSpatial distribution of social and economic activities in the regionDriving forces
21 Morphological Analisys - Amazon Region - 2000-2020 CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIESHYPOTHESESLiberalization / RegulationFragmentation / IntegrationInstability / StabilityREGULATED AND STABLE INTEGRATIONINTEGRATED LIBERALIZATION WITH UNSTABLE FINANCIAL BALANCEFRAGMENTED AND UNSTABLE LIBERALIZATIONGlobal integration of BrazilCONSOLIDATED MERCOSUR AND FTAACONSOLIDATED MERCOSUR AND PARTIALLY IMPLEMENTED FTAAMINIMUM MERCOSUR AND BROAD FTAAPARTIALLY IMPLEMENTED MERCOSUR AND FTAADecrease in raw materials contentRAPIDMODERATESLOWGlobal expansion of tourismRole of the StateEconomic growthSTABILITY WITH HIGH GROWTH AND ACTIVE REGULATING STATESTABILITY WITH MEDIUM GROWTH AND LIBERAL STATESTABILITY WITH MEDIUM GROWTH AND SOCIAL PROMOTING STATEINSTABILITY WITH LOW GROWTH AND DISORGANIZED STATESpatial reconfiguration of the Brazilian economySMALL DIVERSIFICATIONMODERATE DIVERSIFICATIONHIGH CONCENTRATIONMODERATE CONCENTRATIONStructuring investmentsBROAD AND ARTICULATEDMODERATE AND ARTICULATEDMODERATE AND DISCONNECTEDLIMITEDEnvironmental ManagementINTENSE AND EFFECTIVEMODERATE AND EFFECTIVENORMATIVEDevelopment of Sustainable TechnologyDegradation of natural resourcesLOW IMPACTMODERATE IMPACTHIGH IMPACTPan Amazonian integrationBROADCORE IDEASSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTHigh growth with low environmental impact and broad integrationREGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND QUALITY OF LIFEMedium economic growth with moderate impact and moderate integrationECONOMIC GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATIONMedium economic growth with high environmental impact and moderate integrationSTAGNATION AND POVERTYEconomic stagnation with high environmental impact and limited integration
23 2000’s to Today – The Brazilian Context Prolonged economic stabilityOvercoming of external restrictionsIncreasing social inclusion: “Brazil, a medium class country”Increasing insertion of Brazil into global economyBrazil emerges as an attractive land of economic opportunitiesNew challenges and uncertainties facing the future of the country in the medium and long terms
24 “To turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in” Fourth Case Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)4ºArea: 586,528 km² (larger than France)Population: nearly 20 million peopleEconomy: third among brazilian states“To turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in”Strategic GuidelinesProjects
25 Fourth Case Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007) 4ºScenarios for Minas Gerais StateICONQUEST of a better futureIIWASTE of opportunitiesIIIOVERCOMING adversitiesIVDECADENCE and impoverishmentSustained development of domestic economyDomestic economy with intermittent growthBrazilMinas Gerais’ environmentCreativeCompetitiveInclusiveConservativeInefficientExcludingMinas GeraisArea: 586,528 km² (larger than France)Population: nearly 20 million peopleEconomy: third among brazilian states“To turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in”Strategic GuidelinesProjects
26 Fourth Case Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007) 4ºInvestment &BusinessNetwork CitiesEquity andWelfareEnvironmental SustainabilityCompetitive Territorial IntegrationIntegrated Perspective of the Human CapitalState forresultsArea: 586,528 km² (larger than France)Population: nearly 20 million peopleEconomy: third among brazilian states“To turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in”Strategic GuidelinesProjects
27 “to turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in” Fourth Case Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)4ºAfter the development of the four scenarios, the first one of them was chosen as a reference for the creation of the Vision of the future for Minas Gerais over a period of 20 years:“to turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in”Area: 586,528 km² (larger than France)Population: nearly 20 million peopleEconomy: third among brazilian states“To turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in”Strategic GuidelinesProjects
28 “To turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in” Fourth Case Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)4ºThe vision was then split into:Strategic guidelinesPortfolio of structuring and leveraging projects for the development of the StateArea: 586,528 km² (larger than France)Population: nearly 20 million peopleEconomy: third among brazilian states“To turn Minas Gerais into the best state to live in”Strategic GuidelinesProjects
29 Fourth Case Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007) 4ºANTICIPATIONThe threat of losing many opportunities unless making severe adjustments in the state and its governmentAPPROPRIATIONChoice of strategies aligned with the scenariosRealization of the urgent need for modernization of the state government toward higher efficiencyACTION AND CONSEQUENCESPublic policies aligned with the scenarios“The shock of management” in state government
30 Brazil in transition - current landscape and future trends 2011-2022 A. “Back to the 70´s”B. “Chinese capitalism on Brazilian way”Intense & wideInsertion of Brazil in global economyLimited, moderateWide & increasingD. “A new isolation”C. “A clash of orthodox capitalism”Moderate & selectivePresence of the State in the economy
32 Anticipation Appropriation Action BNDES(1984)ELETRONORTE(1988, 1998)PETROBRAS(1989, 1992, 1996)MINAS GERAIS( )AnticipationThe possibility of a new cycle of economic growthThe anticipation of political, economic, and environmental issues resulting from the economic exploitation of the Amazon RegionLoss of monopoly and emergence of competitionIncreasing uncertaintyThe threat of losing many opportunities unless making severe adjustments in the state and its governmentAppropriationBy the elected President (1989)A strong national desire to overcome recessionContribution to a gradual formation of a political convergence concerning Amazon region’s biggest challenge.The potential of economic exploitation of biodiversityAssimilation of prospective methods by a large portion of the senior management and technical staff of the companyChoice of strategies aligned with the scenariosRealization of the urgent need for modernization of the state government toward higher efficiencyActionThe beginning of the openness of the Brazilian economyThe search for new production standards on sustainable basePreparation of managers and professionals to deal successfully with the end of monopoly, competition and higher uncertaintyPublic policies aligned with the scenarios“The shock of management” in state government
33 ConclusionsThe use and dissemination of prospective foresight in Brazil made significant progress during the last 30 years.Unfortunately, we are still missing a long term prospective and strategic view for the country. We – society, state, companies – are excessively focused on short term tactic questions.However, there has been an increasing demand for a long term view from new leaderships. Our current development stage itself requires such view.I am, therefore, optimistic: this is likely the decade when Brazil – as a nation and a society – will pursue and build a long term vision of development.And all of us, with the methods and tools of prospective foresight , will be able to make relevant contributions to this project.Thank you.
35 Remarkable Prospective Projects supported by Macroplan Construção de Cenários para o Setor Energético e o segmento de Óleo e Gás e elaboração da Visão de Futuro do Projeto Tendências Tecnológicas para o CTPETRO – Fundo Setorial do Petróleo (Mar-Jul, 2002).Atualização dos Cenários Sócio-Econômicos e Energéticos da Amazônia para o Horizonte 1998/ ELETRONORTE (Out, Abril, 2001)Elaboração dos cenários focalizados no mercado de distribuição de combustíveis no Brasil – horizonte 2002/2006 (2001)Mapeamento das Incertezas e Construção dos Cenários do Mercado de Energia Elétrica – Horizonte ( 2001).Cenários da Educação a Distância no Brasil – Horizonte 2010; como etapa integrante do processo de planejamento estratégico do desenvolvimento da Educação à Distância do SENAC São Paulo para o horizonte (Fev-Abril 2000)Cenários do setor de Telecomunicações no Brasil no Horizonte 1996/2010 para a EMBRATEL (1996)Consultoria metodológica à Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República na construção de Cenários Exploratórios do Brasil no Horizonte 2020 (Jan - Jun, 1996)Consultoria à elaboração de análise prospectiva e Cenários de Educação Profissional e do ambiente de atuação do SENAI – Horizonte ( 1995)Cenários para o Mato Grosso do Sul no horizonte (Mar-Set, 1995)Cenários do ambiente de atuação das micro e pequenas empresas do Rio de Janeiro (2012)Análise de tendências de longo prazo e elaboração do Plano Mineiro de Desenvolvimento Integrado horizonte 2030 (2011)Quatro cenários da cidade de Belo Horizonte (2009)Cenários do Ambiente de Atuação do do Sistema Eletrobras 2020 (2010)Quatro Cenários Econômicos para o BrasilCenários Exploratórios do Rio de Janeiro no Horizonte (2007)Cenários Exploratórios de Minas Gerais no Horizonte (2007)Cenários do ambiente de atuação das organizações públicas de PD&I do Agronegócio no Horizonte 2023 (Embrapa, 2007)Três Cenários para o Desenvolvimento do Estado do Espírito Santo (2006)“O Ensino Superior no Mundo e no Brasil – Condicionantes, Tendências e Cenários para o Horizonte ” (2003)Cenários de Desenvolvimento para a elaboração do Plano Estratégico do Sistema Petrobras – (2003 – 2004)
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