2008 ROMS/TOMS European Workshop Saint Martin d'Heres Campus Grenoble, France (1) University of Lisbon, CGUL, IDL (2) University of Hamburg, Center for.

Apresentação em tema: "2008 ROMS/TOMS European Workshop Saint Martin d'Heres Campus Grenoble, France (1) University of Lisbon, CGUL, IDL (2) University of Hamburg, Center for."— Transcrição da apresentação:

1 2008 ROMS/TOMS European Workshop Saint Martin d'Heres Campus Grenoble, France (1) University of Lisbon, CGUL, IDL (2) University of Hamburg, Center for Marine and Atmospheric Research (ZMAW) Sensitivity of Iberian upwelling to climate change: a numerical simulation with ROMS forced by RACMO A2 scenario José Alves (1) Pedro M A Miranda (1) Nuno Serra (2)

2 Summary Characterize the upwelling field in terms of sea surface temperature, 3D currents (U,V and W) and sea surface height for the year 2000 3 x 30 year simulations (1961-1990 ERA-40, RACMO Control, RACMO A2 2071- 2100) Identify tendencies in terms of number, intensity and duration of upwelling events Detailed study during the year 2000 (U, V, W, SST, SSH) ECMWF – ERA 40 1960-2000 RACMO 1961-1990 2071-2100 ROMS

3 Cape Carvoeiro Latitude: 39.35 N Longitude: 9.4 W ROMS domain

4 ROMS RUTGERS version 3.0 Model parameters Resolution : horizontal 1/12  (approx =7 km) Mercator projection vertical 30 – sigma layers (theta_s =5.0 ; theta_b=0.4) Grid: 97 x 153 x 30 Time step DT=900 s (NDTFAST=100 s) Mellor Yamada 2.5 closure Mix_Geo_UV and Mix_Geo_TS (mixing on geopotential) constant z Initial Conditons Levitus world ocean database Boundary conditions Radiation and Nudging

5 Surface forcing ATMOSPHERIC DATA (BULK_FLUXES) ECMWF – ERA 40 ( 6 hour) (1960-2000), 1 degree RACMO (KNMI) (24 hour) (1961-1990) and (2071-2100), 0.5 degree Downward shortwave radiation (swrad) × Downward longwave radiation (lwrad) 2m air temperature (Tair) 10 m wind (Uwind, Vwind) pressure (Pair) relative humidity (Qair)

6 Forcing (ERA 40) at Cape Carvoeiro Year 2000 Surface temperatureRelative humidity Surface pressure Cape Carvoeiro T (  C) Q (%)P (hPa) mean16.4180.311018.9 max23.211001037.2 min7.9044.88985.94 24°C 8°C

7 Shortwave radiationSurface wind Year 2000 Cape Carvoeiro Uwind (m/s) Vwind (m/s) Swrad (W/m2) mean1.31-2.70155.48 max12.6419.18648.62 min-10.13-14.400 Forcing (ERA 40) Cape Carvoeiro Year 2000

8 Results: Summer 2000 at Cape Carvoeiro 1 July31 August ROMS 1 July 31 August 123

9 Sea surface height at cape Cape Carvoeiro 2000 1 July31 August ROMS

10 Spatial variability (full year) Cape Finisterre Cape Carvoeiro Cape São Vicente Most of the events are verified simultaneously along the coast.

11 Validation near Cape Carvoeiro Satellite AVHRR (1/4  AVHRR daily OI SST) vs ROMS AVHRR, NOAA ROMS Nearest points

12 SST during the July and August 2000

13 Results Summer 2000 episodes variableUpwellingEpisodes SST sea surface temperature  decrease  T < - 4 K U zonal current  westward  U < 0.3 m/s V meridional current  southward  V < 0.4 m/s W vertical component  upward  W < 0.15 mm/s SSH sea surface height  lower values  H < 0.06 m Upwelling near Iberia is episodic Episode duration ~1-2 weeks Extension < 50 km Intensity < 4 K

14 40 year simulation forced by ERA-40 ECMWF Surface wind( m/s) 1960-19691970-19791980-19891990-1999 U mean (m/s)1.050.970.630.56 V mean (m/s)-1.14-1.34-1.15-1.22 Wind turned to more Northerly Implying more frequent (simulated) upwelling Decade1960-19691970-19791980-19891990-1999 Mean angle(  ) 317.35324.10331.28335.34 Climate change impacts on upwelling

15 The upwelling episodes were identified through the analyses of sea surface temperature time series. The threshold considered to identify an upwelling event was a decrease in SST of at least 2  C in less than 1 week, followed by an increase of the same magnitude in a similar time period. Number of events

16 RACMO model surface winds at Cape Carvoeiro From 2001-2100, it is observed an increase in the wind intensity, although the mean direction has not changed. Surface wind (m/s) 1961-19701971-19801981-1990Mean 1961-1990 U2.351.792.042.06 V-1.30-1.07-1.09-1.15 Surface wind (m/s) 2071-20802081-20902091-2100Mean 2071-2100 U2.872.792.482.71 V-1.34-1.59-1.44-1.46 1961-19701971-19801981-1990Mean Mean angle (  ) 298.95300.87298.12299.17 2071-20802081-20902091-2100Mean Mean angle (  ) 295.03299.68300.14298.31

17 (1961-1990) (2071-2100) Atmospheric forcing variables Increase in the mean temperature of 2.2  C / slight increase in the variability Slight decrease in the pressure mean value / increase in the variabilty TEMPERATURE SURFACE PRESSURE 50%

18 mean1961-19902070-2100 U (m/s)-0.0096-0.0137 SST (  C) 16.22417.9394 ROMS forced with RACMO

19 ROMS forced with RACMO data (Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel) 1961-19701971-19801981-1990TOTAL 2<  T<3 23303184 3<  T<4 75517 4<  T<5 4116 TOTAL343637107 2071-20802081-20902091-2100TOTAL 2<  T<3 25243281 3<  T<4 1731030 4<  T<5 1348 TOTAL433046119 RACMO control has no relevant decadal tendencies (unlike ERA-40) 10% more

20 Sligtly increase in the westward horizontal displacement Increased interanual variability Number of days with westward currentHorizontal displacement CONTROL A2 CONTROL A2

21 Increase in the number of events of short duration (1 week) and long duration (4 weeks), decrease in the number of events of medium duration (3 and 4 weeks), more interdecadal variability CONTROL A2 Upwelling duration

22 Slight increase in the events intensity CAT I > 4 °C || 3 °C< CATII <4 °C|| 2 °C< CATIII < 3 °C Upwelling intensity

23 Conclusions ROMS forced by ERA-40 Increase in the decadal number of upwelling events from 1960 to 2000 due to change in the mean wind direction. ROMS forced by RACMO control run (1961-1990) Number of upwelling events almost constant RACMO fields do not include observed climate trends ROMS A2 scenario (2071-2100) 10% increase in the number of upwelling events (vs Control run) due to an increase in the wind intensity A2 2071-2100 simulated upwelling Increased event duration variability (More long and short events) Slight increase in mean event intensity Increased interdecadal variability

24 Future work Add Tagus estuary to the computational domain in order to study the circulation within the Tagus estuary – grid nesting Use atmospheric data with a higher spatial resolution Apply boundary conditions from a global ocean model Look at other upwelling diagnostics

25 Mean1961-19902070-2100 eastward horizontal displacement (m) 4.2793e+053.9527e+05 westward horizontal displacement (m) -7.2722e+05-8.2122e+05 N  of days with U>0 167.56155.40 N  of days with U<0 192.69204.85 ROMS forced with RACMO

26 Initial conditions Levitus 1 January Surface salinitySurface temperature

27 ROMS forced with ECMWF ERA 40 data mean1961-1990 eastward displacement (m) 6.9122e+05 westward displacement (m) -9.5504e+05 N  of days with U>0 140.30 N  of days with U<0 220.70 Climate change impacts on Iberian upwelling

28 ROMS forced with ERA 40 2K

29 ROMS forced with RACMO Control vs ERA-40

30 ERA 40 Vs RACMO ERA 40 reanalysis data RACMO data from a climate model

31 Quando o modelo ROMS foi forçado com dados do ECMWF-ERA40, no período 1960-2000, verificou-se um aumento do número de episódios de upwelling, enquanto que quando se utilizou o forçamento do modelo RACMO, para o mesmo período, se verificou que o número de episódios de upwelling se manteve praticamente constante. Nas projecções para o final do século XXI [2071-2100] (modelo RACMO) verificou- se um aumento do vento junto ao Cabo Carvoeiro e um consequente aumento do número de episódios de upwelling, cerca de 10 % em relação ao verificado no período 1961-1990. No Cabo Carvoeiro a maioria dos episódios de upwelling eram e vão continuar a ser de longa duração (4 semanas ou mais) e de baixa intensidade (2<  T<3), embora se tenha verificado um ligeiro aumento na intensidade dos episódios. O número de dias de upwelling por ano praticamente não sofre alteração.

32 Sea surface temperature SST at layers 30-20-10

33 1961-19902070-2100 mean eastward horizontal displacement (m) 1.7830e+041.6470e+04 mean westward horizontal displacement (m) -3.0321e+04-3.4218e+04 mean U>0 (days)167.56155.40 mean U<0 (days)192.69204.85 1961-19902070-2100 mean U (m/s)-0.0096-0.0137 mean SST (  C) 16.22417.9394

34

35 SST Vertical sections Cape São Vicente (lat= ???N/lon=??? W) Cape Carvoeiro (lat= 39.35 N/lon=9.40 W ) Cape Vilano (lat= ???N/ lon=???W )

36 July and August 2000 SST; SSH; currents U and V

37 30 year temporal series Horizontal displacement (m) Number of days with U>0 and U<0

38 30 Year temporal series U and SST

39 Currents (U, V and W)

40 Sea surface height SSH Lower values close to the coast during upwelling episodes due to …

41 STATIONS Map with stations locations

42 FLOATS Map with float trajectories

43 Validate SST with satellite data

44 Conclusions

45 Problems Sea surface temperature values too low during the winter months

46 Ver figura em Inglês

47 1961-19902071-2100