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THE NEW BRAZIL: ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES Edmar Bacha Yale Law School April 17, 2013 1
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THE NEW BRAZIL IN A NUTSHELL 1985: Redemocratization 1988: New Constitution 1994: Stabilization and reforms under Cardoso 2002: Lulas election and social policies 2004: Commodity boom 2011: Middle-income trap sets in? 2
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ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS Inflation and growth record Recent achievements Structural challenges 3
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INFLATION AND GROWTH RECORD 4
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THE OLD AND THE NEW: INFLATION BEFORE AND AFTER THE REAL PLAN 5
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INFLATION BEFORE THE REAL PLAN, 1980-1993 6
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INFLATION AFTER THE REAL PLAN, 1995-2012 7
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GDP GROWTH: SOME RECOVERY AFTER LOST DECADE 8
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RECENT ACHIEVEMENTS 9
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POOR FAMILIES INCOMES GREW FASTER THAN THE RICH, 1999-2009 10
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POOR FAMILIES GAINS WERE UNAFFECTED BY THE FINANCIAL CRISIS (PER CAPITA HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROWTH, 2009-2011) 11
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UNEMPLOYMENT IS THE LOWEST EVER ( 2002-2013) 12 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 jun/02 out/02 fev/03 jun/03 out/03 fev/04 jun/04 out/04 fev/05 jun/05 out/05 fev/06 jun/06 out/06 fev/07 jun/07 out/07 fev/08 jun/08 out/08 fev/09 jun/09 out/09 fev/10 jun/10 out/10 fev/11 jun/11 out/11 fev/12 jun/12 out/12 fev/13
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NET PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT IS FALLING (1991-2013,% GDP) 13
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REAL INTEREST RATES ARE THE LOWEST EVER (1996-2013, p.y.) 14
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BRAZIL IS A NET CREDITOR TO ABROAD (GROSS AND NET EXTERNAL DEBT AS A RATIO TO EXPORTS, 1970-2012) 15
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BRAZILS GDP VALUE AND RANK SOARED, 2000-2012 16
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STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES 17
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INFLATION-GROWTH TRADE-0FF IS UNFAVORABLE 18
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TAX BURDEN IS HIGH (SELECTED COUNTRIES FROM OECD AND LATIN AMERICA) 19
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INVESTMENT RATE IS LOW Argentina 23.6 Bolivia 15.9 Brazil 18.7 Chile 22.5 Colombia 22.7 Ecuador 25.4 Mexico 25.2 Panama 24.3 Paraguay 18.3 Peru 22.8 Uruguay 19.6 Mean 21.7 20
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SOCIAL SECURITY IS A BIG PROBLEM (OECD data for 2005) 21
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EDUCATIONAL LEVELS ARE POOR (PISA 2009 RANKINGS, SELECTED OECD+ COUNTRIES) 22
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INFRASTRUCTURE LAGS 23
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ECONOMY IS CLOSED TO THE WORLD IMPORTS OVER GDP (%): BRAZIL, L.A., BRICS, US (2011) Argentina20 Brazil13 Chile35 Colombia20 Mexico33 Peru25 China27 India30 Russia22 South Africa29 US18 Average (except BR&US)27 24
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EXTERNAL BONANZA HELPED BUT IT CANNOT GO ON FOR EVER 25
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SOURCES FOR THE SLIDES S5: Miriam Leitão, Saga Brasileira: A Longa Luta de um Povo por sua Moeda. Record, 2011: 260-261. S6: Henrique Carvalho, IPCA e IGP-M: Inflação Histórica no Brasil, February 21, 2011. Avaliable at: www.hcinvestimentos.com/2011/02/21/ipca-igpm-inflacao-historica/. www.hcinvestimentos.com/2011/02/21/ipca-igpm-inflacao-historica/ S7, S12, and S14: Thanks to Aurelio Bicalho from Banco Itaú BBA. S8: Edmar Bacha and Regis Bonelli, Accounting for the rise and fall of Brazils Post-WW-II GDP growth, July 2012. Available at: www.iepecdg.com.br. Updated in April 2013 by Regis Bonelli.www.iepecdg.com.br S10: Edmar Bacha, Introdução. In: E. Bacha, Belíndia 2.0: Fábulas e Ensaios sobre o País dos Contrastes. Civilização Brasileira, 2012. Computed by Rodolfo Hoffmann from PNAD data. S11: IPEA, A decada inclusiva (2001-2011): desigualdade, pobreza e politicas de renda, Comunicados do IPEA n. 153, Sept., 25, 2012. S13, S15, S16, and S20: Armando Castelar, Desempenho Recente e Perspectivas de Crescimento da Economia Brasileira. Presentation to the Seminar: Whither Latin America? Rio de Janeiro: Vargas Foundation, August 9-10, 2012. Updated in April 2013 by Julia Cavalcante Fontes. S18: Monica de Bolle, Há Esperança para o trade-off entre Crescimento e Inflação? Seminário de Conjuntura -- IEPE/Casa das Garças, 8 March 2013 (available at www.iepecdg.com.br).www.iepecdg.com.br S19: Thanks to José Roberto Afonso and Kleber Castro. S21: Paulo Tafner and Fabio Giambiagi, Previdência social: uma agenda de reformas. PPT. October 2010. S22 : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Programme_for_International_Student_Assessment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Programme_for_International_Student_Assessment S23: World Economic Forum, apud Financial Times. S24: World Bank Data: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS S25: Edmar Bacha, Bonança externa e desindustrialização: uma análise do período 2005-2011. In: E. Bacha and M. de Bolle (eds.), O Futuro da Indústria no Brasil: Desindustrialização em Debate. Civilização Brasileira, 2013. 26
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