A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy

Apresentação em tema: "A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy"— Transcrição da apresentação:

1 A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy
32 A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy

2 Open Economies An open economy is one that interacts freely with other economies around the world.

3 Key Macroeconomic Variables in an Open Economy
The important macroeconomic variables of an open economy include: net exports - EL net foreign investment - IEL nominal exchange rates – CAMBIO NOMINAL real exchange rates - CAMBIO REAL

4 Basic Assumptions of a Macroeconomic Model of an Open Economy
The model takes the economy’s GDP as given. The model takes the economy’s price level as given.

5 SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR LOANABLE FUNDS AND FOR FOREIGN-CURRENCY EXCHANGE
The Market for Loanable Funds S = I + NCO S = I + IEL At the equilibrium interest rate, the amount that people want to save exactly balances the desired quantities of investment and net capital outflows.

6 The Market for Loanable Funds
The supply of loanable funds comes from national saving (S). The demand for loanable funds comes from domestic investment (I) and net capital outflows (NCO) (IEL).

7 The Market for Loanable Funds
The supply and demand for loanable funds depend on the real interest rate. A higher real interest rate encourages people to save and raises the quantity of loanable funds supplied. The interest rate adjusts to bring the supply and demand for loanable funds into balance.

8 Figure 1 The Market for Loanable Funds
Real Interest Rate Supply of loanable funds (from national saving) Demand for loanable funds (for domestic investment and net capital outflow) Equilibrium quantity real interest rate Quantity of Loanable Funds Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning

9 The Market for Loanable Funds
At the equilibrium interest rate, the amount that people want to save exactly balances the desired quantities of domestic investment and net foreign investment. Last line: “net capital outflow”

10 The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange
The two sides of the foreign-currency exchange market are represented by NCO (IEL) and NX (EL). NCO represents the imbalance between the purchases and sales of capital assets. NX represents the imbalance between exports and imports of goods and services. IEL = EL

11 The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange
In the market for foreign-currency exchange, U.S. dollars are traded for foreign currencies. For an economy as a whole, NCO and NX must balance each other out, or: NCO = NX IEL = EL

12 The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange
The price that balances the supply and demand for foreign-currency is the real exchange rate.

13 The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange
The demand curve for foreign currency is downward sloping because a higher exchange rate makes domestic goods more expensive. The supply curve is vertical because the quantity of dollars supplied for net capital outflow is unrelated to the real exchange rate.

14 Figure 2 The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange
Real Exchange Rate Supply of dollars (from net capital outflow) Demand for dollars (for net exports) Equilibrium quantity real exchange rate Quantity of Dollars Exchanged into Foreign Currency Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning

15 The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange
The real exchange rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for dollars. At the equilibrium real exchange rate, the demand for dollars to buy net exports exactly balances the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency to buy assets abroad.

16 EQUILIBRIUM IN THE OPEN ECONOMY
In the market for loanable funds, supply comes from national saving and demand comes from domestic investment and net capital outflow. In the market for foreign-currency exchange, supply comes from net capital outflow and demand comes from net exports.

17 EQUILIBRIUM IN THE OPEN ECONOMY
Net capital outflow links the loanable funds market and the foreign-currency exchange market. The key determinant of net capital outflow is the real interest rate.

18 Figure 3 How Net Capital Outflow Depends on the Interest Rate
Real Interest Rate Net capital outflow is negative. Net capital outflow is positive. Net Capital Outflow Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning

19 EQUILIBRIUM IN THE OPEN ECONOMY
Prices in the loanable funds market and the foreign-currency exchange market adjust simultaneously to balance supply and demand in these two markets. As they do, they determine the macroeconomic variables of national saving, domestic investment, net foreign investment, and net exports. Y = C + I + G + EL Y – C – G = I + IEL S = I + IEL => S- I = IEL Second bullet: next to last line: net capital outflow

20 Figure 4 The Real Equilibrium in an Open Economy
(a) The Market for Loanable Funds (b) Net Capital Outflow Real Real Interest Interest Net capital outflow, NCO Supply Rate Rate Demand r Quantity of Net Capital Loanable Funds Outflow Real Exchange Supply Rate Demand E Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning

21 HOW POLICIES AND EVENTS AFFECT AN OPEN ECONOMY
The magnitude and variation in important macroeconomic variables depend on the following: Government budget deficits Trade policies Political and economic stability

22 Government Budget Deficits
In an open economy, government budget deficits . . . reduce the supply of loanable funds, drive up the interest rate, (AUMENTA A TAXA) crowd out domestic investment, (Empurrar para fora o investimento doméstico) cause net foreign investment to fall. CAI IEL Valoriza o cambio em direção ao déficit de EL Last bullet: net capital outflow

23 Figure 5 The Effects of Government Budget Deficit
1. A budget deficit reduces the supply of loanable funds . . . (a) The Market for Loanable Funds (b) Net Capital Outflow Real Real Interest S S Interest Rate Rate r2 B r2 E1 r A which increases the real interest rate . . . which in turn reduces net capital outflow. Demand NCO Quantity of Net Capital Loanable Funds Outflow Real Exchange S S Rate 4. The decrease in net capital outflow reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency . . . E2 which causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. Demand Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning

24 Government Budget Deficits
Effect of Budget Deficits on the Loanable Funds Market A government budget deficit reduces national saving, which . . . shifts the supply curve for loanable funds to the left, which . . . raises interest rates.

25 Government Budget Deficits
Effect of Budget Deficits on Net Foreign Investment Higher interest rates reduce net foreign investment. Bullet one: net capital outflow Bullet two: net capital outflow

26 Government Budget Deficits
Effect on the Foreign-Currency Exchange Market A decrease in net foreign investment reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency. This causes the real exchange rate to appreciate Efeito na diminuição de EL Ou diminui Y ou aumenta P diminuindo o Y tb. Bullet two: net capital outflow

27 Trade Policy A trade policy is a government policy that directly influences the quantity of goods and services that a country imports or exports. Tariff: A tax on an imported good. Import quota: A limit on the quantity of a good produced abroad and sold domestically.

28 Trade Policy Because they do not change national saving or domestic investment, trade policies do not affect the trade balance. For a given level of national saving and domestic investment, the real exchange rate adjusts to keep the trade balance the same. Trade policies have a greater effect on microeconomic than on macroeconomic markets.

29 Effect of an Import Quota
Trade Policy Effect of an Import Quota Because foreigners need dollars to buy U.S. net exports, there is an increased demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency. This leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate.

30 Effect of an Import Quota
Trade Policy Effect of an Import Quota There is no change in the interest rate because nothing happens in the loanable funds market. There will be no change in net exports. There is no change in net foreign investment even though an import quota reduces imports. Last bullet: net capital outflow

31 Effect of an Import Quota
Trade Policy Effect of an Import Quota An appreciation of the dollar in the foreign exchange market encourages imports and discourages exports. This offsets the initial increase in net exports due to import quota.

32 Figure 6 The Effects of an Import Quota
(a) The Market for Loanable Funds (b) Net Capital Outflow Real Real Interest Supply Interest Rate Rate r r 3. Net exports, however, remain the same. Demand NCO Quantity of Net Capital Loanable Funds Outflow Real Exchange Supply Rate D 1. An import quota increases the demand for dollars . . . E2 and causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. E D Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning

33 Effect of an Import Quota
Trade Policy Effect of an Import Quota Trade policies do not affect the trade balance.

34 Political Instability and Capital Flight
Capital flight is a large and sudden reduction in the demand for assets located in a country.

35 Political Instability and Capital Flight
Capital flight has its largest impact on the country from which the capital is fleeing, but it also affects other countries. If investors become concerned about the safety of their investments, capital can quickly leave an economy. Interest rates increase and the domestic currency depreciates.

36 Political Instability and Capital Flight
When investors around the world observed political problems in Mexico in 1994, they sold some of their Mexican assets and used the proceeds to buy assets of other countries.

37 Political Instability and Capital Flight
This increased Mexican net capital outflow. The demand for loanable funds in the loanable funds market increased, which increased the interest rate. This increased the supply of pesos in the foreign-currency exchange market. Desloca a curva de IEL (para a direita), e afeta os mercados de FE de de Câmbio Quando IEL aumenta, há maior demanda sobre FE O aumento de oferta de M deprecia

38 Figure 7 The Effects of Capital Flight
(a) The Market for Loanable Funds in Mexico (b) Mexican Net Capital Outflow Real Real Supply NCO2 1. An increase in net capital outflow. . . Interest Interest Rate D2 Rate r2 which increases the interest rate. r1 r1 increases the demand for loanable funds . . . D1 NCO1 Quantity of Net Capital Loanable Funds Outflow Real Exchange S S2 Rate 4. At the same time, the increase in net capital outflow increases the supply of pesos . . . E which causes the peso to depreciate. E Demand Quantity of Pesos (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning

39 Summary Para analisar a macroeconomia das economias abertas, dois mercados são centrais: o mercado de fundos emprestáveis ​​e o mercado de câmbio de moeda estrangeira.  No mercado de fundos emprestáveis, a taxa de juros é ajustada para equilibrar a oferta de fundos emprestáveis ​​(da poupança nacional) e a demanda de fundos emprestáveis ​​(do investimento doméstico e da saída líquida de capital). No mercado de câmbio de moeda estrangeira, a taxa de câmbio real se ajusta para equilibrar a oferta de dólares (para saída líquida de capital) e a demanda por dólares (para exportações líquidas).  A saída líquida de capital é a variável que liga os dois mercados. • Uma política que reduz a poupança nacional, tal como um défice orçamental do governo, reduz a oferta de fundos emprestáveis ​​e aumenta a taxa de juro. • A maior taxa de juros reduz a saída líquida de capital, reduzindo a oferta de dólares.  • O dólar se valoriza e as exportações líquidas caem. • Uma restrição ao comércio aumenta as exportações líquidas e aumenta a demanda por dólares no mercado de câmbio de moeda estrangeira. • Como resultado, o dólar aprecia em valor, tornando os bens nacionais mais caros em relação aos bens estrangeiros. • Esta valorização compensa o impacto inicial das restrições comerciais sobre as exportações líquidas.

40 Summary Déficit público – aprecia o R$ e move para déficit comercial (IEL ou EL < 0) => aumenta P? e cai o PIB? Quota de importação – não afeta o PIB Fuga de capitais –deprecia o R$ - direção de +EL mas aumenta os preços internos

41 V ou F? A composição do PIB pode ser aferida de acordo com diversos tipos de dispêndios. Cada dólar do dispêndio incluído no PIB é colocado em um dos quatro componentes do PIB, a soma desses componentes tem que ser igual ao PIB. O consumo é a soma das despesas das famílias em bens e serviços, excetuando-se a compra de imóveis residenciais novos. Os investimentos são os dispêndios em equipamentos de capital, estoques e estruturas (incluindo a compra de novos imóveis residenciais pelas famílias). As compras do governo são os gastos em bens e serviços dos governos municipais, estaduais e federal. Já as exportações líquidas incluem as despesas, por parte de estrangeiros em bens produzidos internamente menos as despesas em bens estrangeiros por parte dos residentes.

42 V ou F? Quando o governo apresenta um déficit orçamentário, haverá uma queda na poupança nacional, a não ser que a poupança privada aumente no montante pleno do déficit orçamentário, o que é pouco possível. Conforme mostra a equação entre poupança e investimento, o resultado de uma queda da poupança nacional deve ser necessariamente uma queda no investimento doméstico ou no investimento estrangeiro líquido.

43 V ou F? Fluxo líquido de capital externo, também denominado como investimento externo líquido, refere-se à compra de ativos estrangeiros por residentes internos menos a compra de ativos internos por estrangeiros. Entre as variáveis que influenciam o investimento externo liquido podemos considerar as afirmações abaixo, exceto: As taxas de juros reais pagas sobre os ativos estrangeiros As taxas de juros reais pagas sobre os ativos internos Riscos econômicos e políticos percebidos de manter ativos no exterior As politicas governamentais que afetam a propriedade de ativos internos por estrangeiros. Nenhuma das alternativas apresentadas afeta o investimento externo líquido, devido ao fato desse indicador ser contabilizado de forma agregada.

44 EXERCICIO Discuta brevemente a seguinte afirmação: “Aumento das importações penaliza crescimento do PIB”. Resposta: O PIB (Y) é composto por quatro componentes: Consumo (C), Investimento (I), compras do Governo (G) e exportações líquidas (EL). Y = C + I + G + EL O consumo é a despesa das famílias. O investimento é a compra de bens que serão usados no futuro para produzir bens e serviços. As compras do governo incluem os gastos em bens e serviços locais, estaduais e federais. As exportações líquidas são iguais às exportações menos as importações. A palavra “líquida” é utilizada para expressar que as importações são subtraídas dos demais gastos do PIB. Por exemplo, para uma pessoa que importa um produto ao preço X, esta importação determinará o aumento do consumo (C) ao mesmo preço X, e também resultará na redução das exportações líquidas (EL). Então, o sinal negativo da importação na equação do PIB significa que o valor importado já está incluído em outro componente do PIB, e por este motivo, as compras externas em si, não podem penalizar o crescimento do PIB.

45 exercicio Suponha que os EUA decidam subsidiar a exportação de produtos agrícolas, mas não aumentem os impostos nem diminuam qualquer outro gasto do governo para cobrir estas despesas. Por meio de diagrama com 3 painéis, mostre o que acontece com a poupança nacional, o investimento interno, o investimento externo líquido, a taxa de juros, a taxa de câmbio e a balança comercial. Explique também dissertativamente, como essa política afeta a quantidade de importações, exportações e exportações líquidas. (Mankiw p. 684)

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47 FLUTUAÇÕES ECONÔMICAS NO CURTO PRAZO DEMANDA AGREGADA E OFERTA AGREGADA (MK 33) A INFLUÊNCIA DAS POLÍTICAS MONETÁRIA E FISCAL SOBRE a DEMANDA AGREGADA (MK 34) O TRADE OFF ENTRE INFLAÇÃO E DESEMPREGO NO CURTO PRAZO (MK 35) FLUTUAÇÕES ECONÔMICAS (e GRANDES CRISES) E A MACROECONOMIA

48 FLUTUAÇÕES ECONÔMICAS (e GRANDES CRISES) E A MACROECONOMIA MODELO CLÁSSICO LEI DE SAY TODA OFERTA CRIA SUA PRÓPRIA DEMANDA DEMANDA Y = C + I + G + EL (NÍVEL DE PREÇOS) OFERTA AGREGADA (é Vertical no Longo Prazo) MOEDA (TEORIA QUANTITATIVA) MODELO KEYNESIANO ÓTICAS DO PIB EMPREGO, JURO E MOEDA DEMANDA EFETIVA POLITICAS: MONETÁRIA, FISCAL E CAMBIAL (O TRIPÉ DO CONTROLE) 5 QUESTÕES (MK 36) 1. Podem os formuladores de políticas monetárias e fiscais tentar estabilizar a economia? 2. No caso de a política monetária ser feita pela regra, e não por critério? 3. No caso de o banco central apontam para inflação zero? 4. O governo deve equilibrar o seu orçamento? 5. Se as leis tributárias devem ser reformadas para incentivar a poupança?

49 Figure 1 Equilibrium in the Money Market
Interest Rate Money supply Money demand M d r1 Equilibrium interest rate r2 M2 d Quantity fixed Quantity of by the Fed Money Copyright © South-Western

50 Figure 2 The Money Market and the Slope of the Aggregate-Demand Curve
(a) The Money Market (b) The Aggregate-Demand Curve Interest Money Price Rate supply Level Money demand at price level P2 , MD2 increases the demand for money . . . r2 Money demand at price level P , MD P2 Y2 which increases the equilibrium interest rate . . . 1. An increase in the price level . . . r Y P Aggregate demand Quantity fixed Quantity Quantity which in turn reduces the quantity of goods and services demanded. by the Fed of Money of Output Copyright © South-Western

51 Figure 3 A Monetary Injection
(a) The Money Market (b) The Aggregate-Demand Curve Interest Price Rate Money supply, MS MS2 Level AD2 Money demand at price level P 1. When the Fed increases the money supply . . . r Y P the equilibrium interest rate falls . . . r2 Aggregate demand, A D Quantity Y Quantity which increases the quantity of goods and services demanded at a given price level. of Money of Output Copyright © South-Western

52 Figure 4 The Multiplier Effect
Price Level AD3 AD2 but the multiplier effect can amplify the shift in aggregate demand. Aggregate demand, AD1 $20 billion 1. An increase in government purchases of $20 billion initially increases aggregate demand by $20 billion . . . Quantity of Output Copyright © South-Western

53 Mercado de câmbio As exportações líquidas aumentam
 Quando a renda do resto do mundo aumenta  Quando os preços que recebemos pelas exportações são mais elevados  Quando a taxa de câmbio é depreciada ou desvalorizada  Redução do custo do transporte dos bens de país para país  produto mais competitivo no mercado internacional  Redução de impostos de exportação, ou redução de impostos de importação pelo país comprador  Preferências dos consumidores. Os déficits governamentais elevam as taxas de juros, deslocam o investimento interno, causam apreciação do real, e empurram a balança comerial ao déficit