Rendibilidade da Educação

Apresentação em tema: "Rendibilidade da Educação"— Transcrição da apresentação:

1 Rendibilidade da Educação
Pedro Telhado Pereira Universidade da Madeira, CEPR and IZA

2 Os trabalhadores portugueses apresentam uma baixa instrução

3 População com o Secundário Completo (1999), por grupos de idade
Relembremos que as populações mais jovens não estavam a recuperar a um bom ritmo População com o Secundário Completo (1999), por grupos de idade País 25-64 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Espanha 35 55 41 25 13 Grécia 50 71 58 42 24 Irlanda 51 67 56 31 Itália 37 21 Portugal 30 15 11

4 Todos os países, com excepção de Portugal, apresentam um crescimento de mais de 30% entre a geração dos e a dos 25-34 Portugal apresenta um crescimento de menos de 20%

5 Passados quase dez anos em 2008
População com o Secundário Completo (2008), por grupos de idade País 25-64 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Espanha 51 65 57 45 29 Grécia 61 75 69 56 39 Irlanda 85 62 Itália 53 49 35 Portugal 28 47 20 13

6 Portugal já ultrapassou os 30% de diferença
No entanto menos de metade da geração mais jovem (25-34) tem o secundário completo. Os valores apresentados por esta geração são semelhantes aos das gerações 20 anos mais velhas nos países comparados.

7 População com o Ensino Superior Completo (2008), por grupos de idade
No Ensino Superior População com o Ensino Superior Completo (2008), por grupos de idade País 25-64 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Espanha 29 39 33 24 16 Grécia 23 28 27 22 15 Irlanda 34 45 37 19 Itália 14 20 12 10 Portugal 8

8 Para a geração mais nova, a Itália está pior
No entanto, Portugal ainda está muito abaixo dos outros países com os quais comparamos

9 Relembre o investimento em capital humano
Suponha que não existem custos de estudar ou que estes são compensados pelos rendimentos durante o tempo de estudo.

10 Temos dois fluxos de salários
Sem educação

11 Com educação

12 São iguais quando

13 O que os economistas calculam

14 Portugal é o país dos considerados que apresenta maior rendibilidade da educação

15 A taxa de rendibilidade média para os países considerados é de 7,8%.
A taxa mínima é de 4.1% para a Suécia A taxa máxima é para Portugal 12,6

16 A rendibilidade da educação tem apresentado uma tendência crescente (cerca de 1% por década).

17 O aumento de rendibilidade não resultou de uma diminuição dos salários reais das pessoas com menor educação

18 A cohort dos mais velhos e mais educados é a que apresenta evolução mais crescente

19 A licenciatura é o grau que apresenta maior rendibilidade

20 A Licenciatura apresentava uma taxa de rendibilidade média por ano de 18%
Esta taxa é 10% superior à do Ensino Secundário

21 As engenharias, a gestão e a economia lideram
Na rendibilidade do superior…. As engenharias, a gestão e a economia lideram Table 1 – Returns to Degree Type and Content, 1995 Degree Type Degree Content All Men Women "Bacharelato" Management and Economics 270% 262% 267% Engineering 368% 325% 408% Human and Social Sciences 240% 224% Other Degrees 318% 327% 319% "Licenciatura" 500% 471% 498% 504% 450% 548% 431% 331% 492% 438% 373%

22 Em 2006 (EAG 2010) Os homens com Ensino Superior ganhavam mais 90% e as mulheres mais 78% do que o correspondente aos que ficaram com o Ensino Secundário. Este valor tem permanecido quase constante na última década.

23 Conclusão sobre a rendibilidade da Educação
Portugal é um país que apresenta uma alta rendibilidade da educação No entanto, apresenta também um alto risco no investimento em educação, como veremos a seguir. A alta rendibilidade tem-se mantido

24 Quanto à formação profissional:
Parece não haver aumentos de salários com o sistema de aprendizes ou nas escolas profissionais. Existem aumentos de salários quando a formação profissional se executa em instituições de ensino superior ou nas empresas

25 Os resultados utilizando o ECHP
Confirmam os resultados obtidos utilizando os Quadros de Pessoal A rendibilidade da educação é maior no sector privado que no público (como veremos a seguir) Não existe problema de selectividade na amostra feminina Não confirmam a teoria do sinal. Discutiremos mais adiante esta teoria.

26 O sector público parece oferecer menor rendibilidade à educação do que o sector privado. Existe, no entanto, um prémio salarial de cerca de 40% no sector público. Table 4 – Returns to Education in the Public and Private Sector All sample Public Private Education 8.2% 7.4% 8.9%

27 Os resultados não confirmam a teoria do sinal
Table 6 – Returns to Education, Employees and Self-Employed Employees Self-Employed Education .099 .117

28 As regressões de quantis mostram uma grande dispersão nos resultados

29 Existe uma relação positiva entre o nível e o risco
Table 5 - Country Rankings, OLS and QR results Portugal 12.6 1 8.9 16 Austria 9.7 2 5.6 15 Switzerl. 9.5 3 1.9 5 Ireland 4 2.6 8 Finland 3.3 11 Spain 8.6 6 2.4 7 UK 4.8 14 Germany 0.3 France 7.6 9 3.4 10 Netherl. Greece 6.5 -1.9 Denmark 6.6 12 0.8 Italy 6.4 13 0.4 US 6.3 Norway 2.1 Sweden 4.1 3.8 Average 7.8 2.8 Country OLS Rank1 Diff Rank2 St Deviation 2.5 A maioria dos países soma 17 ou está a um desvio padrão da média. São excepções a Suíça e a Alemanha (com altas rendibilidades e baixo risco) e os Estados Unidos e a Suécia (com baixas rendibilidades e alto risco).

30 A soma das duas ordens dá cerca de 17 para grande número de países
A soma das duas ordens dá cerca de 17 para grande número de países. Verifica-se que a alta rendibilidade está associada ao alto risco. Table 5 - Country Rankings, OLS and QR results Portugal 12.6 1 8.9 16 Austria 9.7 2 5.6 15 Switzerl. 9.5 3 1.9 5 Ireland 4 2.6 8 Finland 3.3 11 Spain 8.6 6 2.4 7 UK 4.8 14 Germany 0.3 France 7.6 9 3.4 10 Netherl. Greece 6.5 -1.9 Denmark 6.6 12 0.8 Italy 6.4 13 0.4 US 6.3 Norway 2.1 Sweden 4.1 3.8 Average 7.8 2.8 Country OLS Rank1 Diff Rank2 St Deviation 2.5

31 Os países que apresentam mais alta rendibilidade são os que menos apoiam os alunos e as suas famílias Ordem na Rendibilidade Ordem no Apoio Financeiro Soma Portugal 1 7 8 Áustria 2 9 Irlanda 3 5 Espanha 4 13 UK Alemanha 6 12 Holanda 10 Grécia 11 19 Dinamarca Itália 21 Suécia

32 Alguns resultados da investigação levada a cabo na UMa sobre a rendibilidade da formação profissional

33 Algumas notas sobre a formação profissional
Resultados de Budria e Pereira (“The Wage Effects of Training in Portugal: Differences across skill groups, genders, sectors and training types”, Applied Economics, 2007, “The Contribution of Vocational Training to Employment, Job-related Skills and Productivity: Evidence from Madeira Island”, International Journal of Training and Development, 2009, “Are Vocational Training Programs Truly Effective? Evidence from Self-assessed Data”, ICFAI Journal of Training and Development, 2009 and “Subjective Assessment on Vocational Training Activities: A Generalized Ordered Probit Approach”, Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training, 2010.

34 Resultados usando Inquérito ao Emprego 1998 a 2000
A participação na formação profissional aumenta com a educação sendo que os mais educados têm uma probabilidade de participação que é 3 vezes superiores. A participação decresce com a idade, é superior no Sector Público e se a pessoa tem um segundo emprego. Tem taxas de rendibilidade superiores a 10%. A rendibilidade é menor para os mais educados

35 Um mês após o fim da formação profissional a maioria encontra emprego.
Resultados usando o Inquérito à Inserção, Direcção Regional de Formação Profissional, 2000 a 2005. Um mês após o fim da formação profissional a maioria encontra emprego. A educação primária aumenta a probabilidade de estar empregue após dois anos em 1,75 vezes A educação secundária aumenta a probabilidade de estar empregue após dois anos em 7,22 vezes A educação superior aumenta a probabilidade de estar empregue após dois anos 11,78 vezes

36 Existe complementaridade entre a educação e a formação profissional
Existe complementaridade entre a educação e a formação profissional. Os mais educados têm não só maior probabilidade de encontrar emprego mas também são os que mais consideram que a formação os ajudou a encontrar o emprego, que está relacionada com o emprego corrente e que aumentou a sua produtividade nesse emprego. Existe um alto nível de satisfação com a formação profissional na Madeira.

37 Conclusão sobre a formação profissional
Usando dados para Portugal vemos que são os menos educados os que mais ganham com a formação profissional. No entanto, dados para a Madeira mostram que os aumentos da empregabilidade, das competências no emprego e da produtividade resultantes da formação profissional aumentam com a educação.

38 Revisão da literatura Previous results
Results from “The Wage Effects of Training in Portugal: Differences across skill groups, genders, sectors and training types” Results from “The Contribution of Vocational Training to Employment, Job-related Skills and Productivity: Evidence from Madeira Island”, International Journal of Training and Development, 2009, 13:1, pp , “Are Vocational Training Programs Truly Effective? Evidence from Self-assessed Data”, ICFAI Journal of Training and Development, 2009 and “Subjective Assessment on Vocational Training Activities: A Generalized Ordered Probit Approach”, forthcoming Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training

39 In a research previous to our joint research, Pedro Pereira and some colleagues ( Joop Hartog , Pedro Pereira, José Vieira, "Vocational Training and Earnings in Portugal", Economia, vol. XXIV, Janeiro/Maio/Outubro 2000, 35-52) using data from the European Community Household Panel, 1994 (3598 obs., men 2193, women 1405), five training types: 1) at College; 2) at Vocational School; 3) in a Working environment; 4) in a Dual system and 5) Less than one year, found that: Returns to training are significant: Men 11,4%, Women 6,7%, but not in all types of training. It is higher if the training is taken in at a College ( Men 32,6%, Women 15,2%) and for men also in a working environment (Men 18,1%, Women not significantly different from zero). It is lower but still significantly different from zero if the training is less than one year (Men 9,3%, Women 7,6%), but it is not significantly different from zero if taken in a Vocational School or in a Dual system.

40 Using data from Inquérito ao Emprego (Labor Survey) 1998 to 2000, we (see Santiago Budria e Pedro Pereira,  “The Wage Effects of Training in Portugal: Differences across skill groups, genders, sectors and training types”, Applied Economics, 2007, 39, 787–807) saw the influence of different types of training in wages and studied the participation in training.

41 The types of training considered were the following:

42

43 The empirical results show that the participation into training increases with education (more educated are more prone to participate - more than 3 times), decreases with age, increases if in the Public Sector for men and is higher if a person has a second job.

44 The returns to training were 12. 7% for men and for women 8
The returns to training were 12.7% for men and for women 8.4%, but were much higher if we corrected by selectivity (returns to training with treatment effects % for men, 37.5% for women).

45 When considering the returns to different types of training we found that they are higher in company training than in external training. When considering the selectivity correction training to improve future skills has a return that is not significantly different from zero while the returns are positive if the training is to increase skills at the current job. Training of short term duration seems to bring higher returns than longer term courses.

46 We used interactions terms to see the influence of education on returns to training and found that, in our data, returns are lower for more educated people.

47 Conclusion That lead us to conclude that training has a remedial effect meaning that people with lower education can overcome this “handicap” through training and this way decrease the wage gap to people with more education.

48 In more recent research we used data from the Survey of Insertion 2000 to 2005 (Inquérito à Inserção, Direcção Regional de Formação Profissional) (Santiago Budria and Pedro Telhado Pereira, “The Contribution of Vocational Training to Employment, Job-related Skills and Productivity: Evidence from Madeira Island”, International Journal of Training and Development, 2009, 13:1, pp , “Are Vocational Training Programs Truly Effective? Evidence from Self-assessed Data”, ICFAI Journal of Training and Development, 2009 and “Subjective Assessment on Vocational Training Activities: A Generalized Ordered Probit Approach”, forthcoming Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training)

49 This survey is carried out to evaluate the effects of vocational training programs on the transition to the labor market in Madeira Island, Portugal. The information provided in the survey can be divided in two main blocks. In the first block, individuals are asked to report their employment status at three different dates: one month, one year, and two years after the completion of the program. We use this information to explore how the probability of employment depends on the individual characteristics and on the type of vocational program. In the second block, individuals are asked to assess the extent to which the training i) facilitated their access to employment, ii) was related to their current job and iii) enhanced their productivity in the job. We use this information to assess the contribution of training along these dimensions and to explore how this contribution differs across groups of workers and across training programs.

50 One month after the completion of the training the majority had found a paid job, but the percentage of males that found it was higher than the percentage of females. This percentage was increasing with time for males, but no for females as the percentage that were unemployed after two years is higher than the percentage after one year This means that women have more difficulty of finding a job and the job is less stable.

51 We use a logit model to study the influence of education, age, gender, duration of training, field of training in the probability of being employed. Having primary, secondary or tertiary education increases the predicted probability by a factor of 1.75, 7.22, and respectively of being employed after two years. After one month the coefficients are not significantly different from zero, and after one year only the coefficient for having a secondary education is significant.

52 Age has a negative effect (significant at the two years span)
Age has a negative effect (significant at the two years span). Being a woman also has a negative impact, especially after two years where the odd ratio is less than 0.3. Training in Tourism or Electronics or Energy has a positive impact on employment. The duration of training has also a positive effect.

53 To study the effectiveness of the training we start by doing a ordered logit regression.
We see that there are complementary effects between schooling and training. Not only do the more educated have higher chances of getting a job, they also consider that training helped them to get that job and that the training was related to their current job and that they are more productive due to the training.

54 This is even more evident when we consider the results of a generalized order probit approach below.
The probability of being completely satisfied with the training in terms of contributing for employment increases with education. 25.7% for those with secondary education and 37.8% for those with higher education. This observation suggests that the complementarity of training and education acts, therefore, by improving the chances that an individual is completely satisfied with his/her training activity. Having participated in a long program significantly raises the probability of giving the highest score to the training activity but, in turn, does not prevent an individual from reporting the lowest evaluation. The same kind of results was obtained for the satisfaction with the skills and with the increase in productivity. The degree of satisfaction with the training is high

55 In Madeira Island, the public provision of vocational training is highly centralized at the regional level, which has resulted in a relatively small number of vocational paths, a clearer mapping between the regional labor market needs and vocational courses and a wider recognition by regional employers. Screening and signaling effects are more likely to operate in this particular context, providing training completers with useful labor market credentials.

56 Final conclusion In Portugal less educated workers earned a higher wage premium from training activities, and concluded that training had a remedial nature. The results using the data from Madeira suggest that this is not the case when it comes to employment opportunities, job-related skills and productivity. If policy makers are concerned with promoting employment among the less favoured in the labour market, the existing training schemes should be redesigned in order to amend the educational and skills limitations that some training participants exhibit from the start. In this respect, training aimed to acquire general skills and competencies rather than specific knowledge may be of particular importance

57 Rendibilidade da Educação e Função Salários

58 The paradigm of the two islands – Pereira and Martins (2004)
(I1) with a productivity per capita of P (I2) with a productivity per capita of Q P<Q. The inhabitants of the islands live an eternal life (all are born at the same moment) and maximize the present value of their production.

59 The inhabitants of I1 can move to I2 if they spend one period learning how to swim.
The only cost is the product they forgo during that period. The discount rate is uniformly distributed between (r1, r2); f(r)=1/(r2-r1).

60 The decision of learning to swim is made by comparing (E1)
and (E2)

61 There is a value of r, rc, such that E1=E2.
Let us assume that r1 < rc < r2. If r < rc then E1 < E2 and the individual decides to learn to swim and thereafter swims from I1 to I2. If r > rc then E1 > E2 and the individual does not learn to swim and stays on I1.

62 Therefore, there will be S1 proportion of swimmers, where
We end up with three groups of individuals: living on island one, living on island two and born there, and living on island two and born on island one.

63 The “labour economists” want to explain the differences in productivity and therefore they can do so by examining the place where the person is living (the wage equation approach). But suppose that we are interested in studying the “returns” to education (learning to swim). We must then look at the persons born on island one and see the differentials in their productivities as the return we are looking for. This is what “education economists” look for. We could never find this return if we considered the place of residence as one of the explanatory variables of the productivity differential, the reason being that this covariate is a result of learning to swim for people born on island one.

64 This example illustrates
the difference between wage equations - where education is one of the explanatory variables - and returns to education - where all the indirect effects should be accounted for.

65 When an individual (or his family) decides the amount of education he wants to have
he knows that education is going to bring him a better paid job, but at the same time gives him more opportunities in choosing other characteristics as, for instance, the sector and firm where he ends up working in. Part of the private return from education to the individual is going to be through the return he will get from the posterior choices he can make.