Modelos Computacionais para Simulação do Processo de Expansão da Esquistossomose na Área Litorânea de Pernambuco

Apresentação em tema: "Modelos Computacionais para Simulação do Processo de Expansão da Esquistossomose na Área Litorânea de Pernambuco"— Transcrição da apresentação:

1 Modelos Computacionais para Simulação do Processo de Expansão da Esquistossomose na Área Litorânea de Pernambuco Jones.albuquerque@pesquisador.cnpq.brJones.albuquerque@pesquisador.cnpq.br (coord.) silvana@deinfo.ufrpe.br Departamento de Estatística e Informática - DEINFO/UFRPE Centro de Pesquisas Aggeu Magalhães - CPqAM/FIOCRUZ Laboratório de Geoprocessamento e Sensoreamento Remoto - GEOCERE/UFRPE Laboratório de Realidade Virtual e Visualização Científica – SVVR/LNCC

2 CASE STUDY Towards Computational Epidemiology Using Stochastic Cellular Automata in Modeling Spread of Diseases around the world… Computational Epidemiology Research Laboratory University of North Texas Email: {venkatac, mikler}@cs.unt.edu This research is in part supported by the National Science Foundation award: NSF-0350200

3 BR on modeling epidemics … Ordinary differential equations Stochastic Methods Modeling Simulation Linear and Non-Linear Programming Otimization USP Lectures HEP5710 Mathematical Models in Epidemiology Informatics Department - Codage/USP

4 Stochastic Cellular Automata a global model… Definition of a Fuzzy Set Neighborhood of cell Ci,j is global SCA G i,j := {(C k,l, Υ C i,j, C k,l ) |for all C k,l Є C, 0 ≤ Υ C i,j, C k,l ≤ 1} C is a set of all cells in the CA. Υ C i,j, C k,l represents an interaction coefficient that controls all possible interactions between a cell Ci,j and its global neighborhood Gi,j. A function of inter-cell distance and cell population density.

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7 Itamaracá, CPqAM/FIOCRUZ!!!!

8 CPqAM/FIOCRUZ… a lot of information!!

9 a cellular automata Vaccination Population Demographics Disease Parameters Data Sets Visualization Interaction factors Distances

10 Composition Model -Experiment Population distribution over the north Denton region. Total Population of 110000 distributed over a grid size of 50 * 100. Total Population infected at the end of simulation: 48000 Infected Population distribution over the north Denton region.

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31 Goals… Designing tools for investigating local disease clusters through simulation. What’s New? –Utilizing GIS and EPI information for modeling –Combining different simulation paradigms –Designing a tool kit to establish a computational epidemiology model to

32 How? CNPq Project: UFRPE and CPqAM/FIOCRUZ –CMS – Content Management Systems –Mathematical studies –Monitoring and modelling –Analysis e reports

33 Who? Jones Albuquerque, Computer Science Engineering Systems (DEINFO/UFRPE) Silvana Bocanegra, Computer Science Mathematics (DEINFO/UFRPE) UFRPE GEOCERE Computer Science Biology UFABC (Tereza Raquel, Mathematics/UFABC) FIOCRUZ CPqAM Constança Barbosa, Biology (CPqAM/FIOCRUZ) Reinaldo Santos, Imaging Processing and Biology (FIOCRUZ-Rio) Mathematics LNCC (Paulo Sérgio, SVVR/LNCC)

34 When? Phases –CMS and Epidemiology 2006/2007 –Mathematics 2007 –Computer Science 2007/2008 –Information System 2008 –Software Engineering 2008