S ÃO P AULO | R IO DE J ANEIRO | B RASÍLIA | C URITIBA | P ORTO A LEGRE | R ECIFE | B ELO H ORIZONT | L ONDON | L ISBON | S HANGHAI | M IAMI | B UENOS.

Apresentação em tema: "S ÃO P AULO | R IO DE J ANEIRO | B RASÍLIA | C URITIBA | P ORTO A LEGRE | R ECIFE | B ELO H ORIZONT | L ONDON | L ISBON | S HANGHAI | M IAMI | B UENOS."— Transcrição da apresentação:

1 S ÃO P AULO | R IO DE J ANEIRO | B RASÍLIA | C URITIBA | P ORTO A LEGRE | R ECIFE | B ELO H ORIZONT | L ONDON | L ISBON | S HANGHAI | M IAMI | B UENOS A IRES B ELO H ORIZONTE | L ONDON | L ISBON | S HANGHAI | M IAMI | B UENOS A IRES A N O VERVIEW OF B RAZIL P OST C RISIS D URVAL DE N ORONHA G OYOS J R. S ENIOR P ARTNER - N ORONHA A DVOGADOS P RESENTATION MADE FOR C ONNECTICUT T RADE M ISSION – A UGUST 10, 2009.

2 M AP OF B RAZIL

3 J UNE 30, 2009 - B RAZIL P OST C RISIS BETTER 2008 2009 BALANCE OF TRADE (6 MONTHS) US$ 11 billionUS$ 14 billion Domestic Car Sales270.000 per month300.000 per month Indebtness Sâo Paulo53%46% Average interest to consumer/month7,46%7,26% Average interest to companies4,36%4,12% Index Volume of Sales142 points154 points IBOVESPA53.392 points54.775 points Minimum WageR$ 415,00R$ 465,00 Source: O Estado de S. Paulo – 2 August 2009

4 J UNE 30, 2009 - B RAZIL P OST C RISIS - II WORSE20082009 Index Industrial Stokes98,5 points94,5 points Use of Industrial Capacity85,4 %79,8% Monthly Production of Cars300,00284,000 Consumer Confidence111.7 points111,4 points Index Industrial Production136.1 points114 Unemployment Rate7,7%8,1% Source: O Estado de S. Paulo – 2 August 2009

5 5,4 7,8 7,5 3,5 -0,1 3,2 1,0 -0,5 4,7 5,3 4,4 3,4 0,0 0,3 4,3 1,3 2,7 1,1 5,7 5,1 4,5* 2,1 3,2 4,0 -4,3 -5,0 -3,0 -1,0 1,0 3,0 5,0 7,0 9,0 19841985198619871988198919901991 19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002 20032004 2005200620072008 2009*2010* 1,0 B RAZIL S GPD 1884 - 2010 Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE*Projection

6 Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE 200320042005200620072008 GDP (Billion) 552663.48821,0061,3001,378 Population (Million) 178.9181.5185.5186.7188.9196.0 GDP per capita (Thousand) 3,103,664,775,41 6,917,030 B RAZIL S GDP IN US$

7 7,0 6,0 3,5 0,5 0,4 -0,3 -0,5 -0,9 -1,0 -1,9 -2,0 -2,6 -2,8 -3,0 -3,3 -3,4 -3,5 -3,6 -4,0 -5,0 -6,0 -7 -5 -3 1 3 5 7 China Índia Indonésia África do Sul Colômbia Chile Brasil Polônia Arábia Saudita Austrália Argentina Tailândia Turquia Canadá EUA França Portugal Holanda Hungria Coréia do Sul México Rep. Tcheca Espanha Itália Reino Unido Cingapura Taiwan Rússia Alemanha Japão Source: IMF GPD: IMF S P ROJECTIONS FOR 2009

8 F OREIGN D IRECT I NVESTMENT : O UTBOUND Source: Central Bank

9 F OREIGN D IRECT I NVESTMENT : I NBOUND Source: Central Bank * JAN - MAY/2009 US$ Billion

10 S OURCES OF E NERGY Source: Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy 86% 14% 55% 45%

11 1Saudi Arabia266 2Iran138 3Iraq115 4Kuwait104 5UAE97 6Brazil94 7Venezuela87 8Russia79 9Libya41 10Kazakhstan39 11Nigeria36 12USA29 Source: Oil & Gas Journal – January, 2008 In Billion of Barrels W ORLD ' S O IL R ESERVES

12 P OVERTY I N % O F T HE B RAZILIAN P OPULATION – 1992/2009 Source: CPS/FGV

13 M IDDLE C LASS IN % OF THE B RAZILIAN P OPULATION – 1992/2009

14 N UMBER O F M INIMUM W AGES R EQUIRED TO A CQUIRE A B ASIC C AR Source: MTE and DIEESE/PROCON

15 R EAL G ROWTH OF T HE M INIMUM W AGE – 1996/2010 Minimum Wage today in SP: R$ 465,00 *Considering the IPCA accumulated from June to May Source: MTE - CAGED

16 B RAZIL – I NFLATION R ATES Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE

17 E XCHANGE R ATES OF THE R EAL A GAINST THE US D OLLAR

18 Source: Central Bank * JUN/2009 D EVELOPMENT OF E XTERNAL D EBT YearGross Amount (US$ Billion)Net Amount (US$ Billion) 1998235,1 1999223,9 2000216,9 2001209,9 2002210,7 2003214,9165,6 2004201,4148,4 2005169,4115,6 2006172,686,76 2007 193,212,86 2008200,2(-6,6) 2009*201,4(-7,8)

19 S ALARIES G ROWTH Main Metropolitan Areas: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, Recife e Porto Alegre. Source: IBGE

20 BNDS AND M ULTILATERAL A GENCIES BNDSIDBWorld Bank US$ Billion31/12/2008 30/06/2008 Total Assets118,672,5233,6 Net Assets10,819,441,5 Net Profit2,3(22,0)1,5 Disbursement49,87,110,5 Return2,20%-0,03%0,70% Source: BNDS

21 Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE U NEMPLOYMENT RATE IN B RAZIL

22 B RAZIL S TRADE B ALANCE – 1991/2010 Source: Central Bank *Estimate

23 B RAZIL S IMPORTS F ROM A SIA – 1989/2009 Source: Central Bank* Estimate

24 B RAZIL S E XPORTS TO A SIA – 1989/2009 Source: Central Bank * Data accumulated until May

25 B RAZIL S E XPORTS TO THE USA – 1995/2009 Source: Central Bank and SECEX

26 B RAZIL S E XPORTS TO C HINA – 1995/2009 Source: Central Bank and SECEX

27 P ARTICIPATION OF C OMMODITIES IN B RAZIL S E XPORTS Source: MDIC

28 Products Position between main exporters % of Total Global Exports Orange juice1º81% Poultry1º35% Sugar1º33% Coffee1º30% Tobacco1º27% Bovine Meat1º24% Ethanol1º13% Soy2º32% Soy Oil2º28% Pork3º11% Cotton3º5% Source: International Relations and Trade Institute - Icone Brasil B RAZILIAN T RADE IN A GRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

29 Source: Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock – CAN US$ Billion B RAZILIAN T RADE IN A GRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

30 DestinationsAgribusiness Exports (US$ million) Var. % 07/06 (b/a) Total Exp. (c) Increased Value % 2006 (a)2007 (b)Basic SemiManufactured 1.EU 16.153 21.232 31,44 40.357 57,43 14,5328,04 2. USA7.370 6.840 -7,19 25.065 19,55 19,70 60,75 3. China3.802 4.691 23,38 10.749 67,69 29,23 3,09 4. Russia3.156 3.402 7,80 3.741 64,37 30,72 4,92 5. Argentina1.571 1.917 21,97 14.417 11,19 6,31 82,50 6. Japan1.491 1.768 18,57 4.321 58,42 14,65 26,93 Source: Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock – CAN B RAZILIAN T RADE IN A GRICULTURAL PRODUCTS - II

31 B RAZIL S E XPORTS – P ARTICIPATION O F E MERGING C OUNTRIES

32 Brazils prevailing foreign policy doctrine recognizes the vulnerability of the country in a number of areas: Economic; Technological; Political; Commercial and Military. Source: Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs G ENERAL A SPECTS OF B RAZIL F OREIGN P OLICY F OREIGN P OLICY – G ENERAL A SPECTS

33 Brazils present foreign policy doctrine recommends alliances with other major developing countries such as : China, India, Russia and South Africa In order to minimize such vulnerabilities. Source: Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs G ENERAL A SPECTS OF B RAZIL F OREIGN P OLICY - II F OREIGN P OLICY – G ENERAL A SPECTS

34 M AP OF S OUTH A MERICA. São José do Rio Preto

35 Argentina Cristina Kirchner Uruguay Tabaré Vázquez Paraguay Fernando Lugo Chile Michelle Bachelet Bolivia Evo Morales Ecuador Rafael Correa Peru Alan Garcia Colombia Álvaro Uribe Venezuela Hugo Chávez Brazil Lula S OUTH A MERICAN P RESIDENTS

36 S OUTH A MERICAN E CONOMIES IN 2009/2010 F ORECASTS FOR GDP Country20092010 Argentina-3.5%0.5% Brazil1.0%4.5% Chile-1.2%2.7% Colombia-1.2%2.5% Venezuela-4.1%-2.7% Peru3.5%4.5% Ecuador-2.0%1.0% Uruguay1.3%2.0% Bolivia2.2%2.9% Paraguay0.5%1.5%

37 Main Regional Initiatives MERCOSULTRADE BLOCK UNASULPOLITICAL BLOCK ALBAVENEZUELAN INICIATIVE F OREIGN P OLICY – B RAZIL

38 C ONFLICTS AND D ISPUTES BETWEEN BRAZIL AND USA Ethanol Sugar Orange Juice TRADE BILATERAL Steel Shoes Agricultural Subsidies Cotton MULTILATERAL Agricultural Subsidies (WTO) Gasoline Dumping and offset act of 2000 Steel Brazil as plaintiff US Patents Code (10 cases) Silicon Metal Orange Juice Steel Products (2) Orange Juice (2)

39 C ONFLICTS AND D ISPUTES BETWEEN BRAZIL AND USA - II Car industry incentives USA as plaintiff Patent protection (3 cases) Minimum import prices REGIONAL FTAA

40 P OLITICAL DIFFERENCES MULTILATERAL REGIONAL

41 C O - OPERATION BETWEEN BRAZIL AND USA JUDICIAL ASSISTANCE Mutual legal assistance in minimal months 2001 NARCOTIC DRUGS Control of illicit drugs 1983 REGIONAL HAITI

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43 NORONHA ADVOGADOS

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