South American Soybeans Production and Trading

Apresentação em tema: "South American Soybeans Production and Trading"— Transcrição da apresentação:

1 South American Soybeans Production and Trading
8th CIOC Guanzhou China South American Soybeans Production and Trading Marcos Rubin November 13th, 2013

2 Brazil – Grain Production (mmt)
Last 30 years growth. CAGR 30 years Source: CONAB, Forecast Agroconsult.

3 Soybeans/Brazil – Production (mmt)
South Region Weather Instable Growth Limited Mato Grosso State Weather Favorable Growth Great Potential Southeast, Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul Weather Favorable Growth Some Potential MAPITOBA (Maranhão, Piauí, Tocantins and Bahia) Weather Instable Growth Great Potential Source: CONAB Agroconsult

4 Soybeans/South America – Production (mmt)
Brazil Weather Instable in some regions Growth Great Potential Argentina Weather Instable Growth Some potential Paraguay Weather Instable Growth Some Potential Uruguay Weather Instable Growth Some Potential Source: USDA. Agroconsult

5 Soybeans/South America – Production (mmt) vs Climate Risk
1,9 1,7 1,8 26,3 4,1 9,4 3,5 6,0 1,9 9,0 16,3 1,7 14,3 53,9 Source: Agroconsult. 2013/14 Crop year.

6 Soybeans/Brazil – Supply and Demand
Sensibility 2,65 ton/ha = 76 mmt 3,12 ton/ha = 92 mmt Yields Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.

7 Soybeans/Argentina – Supply and Demand
Sensibility 2,00 ton/ha = 39 mmt 2,73 ton/ha = 58 mmt Yields Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.

8 Soybeans/South America(BRA+ARG+PAR+URU) – Supply and Demand
Sum of each country Max of 163 mmt Min of 123 mmt Yields Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.

9 Perspectivas para os Mercados Agrícolas 2012/13
Rally da Safra – The Brazillian Crop Tour Perspectivas para os Mercados Agrícolas 2012/13

10 Soybeans and Corn/Brazil – Exports
Brazillian exports of Soybeans and Corn (mmt) Source: Secex. *Forecast Agroconsult

11 Corn 2nd Crop / Brazil – Planted Area – Season 2003/04
Mato Grosso State – 15% Penetration Milho Segunda Safra Source: Agrosatélite

12 Corn 2nd Crop / Brazil – Planted Area – Season 2012/13
Mato Grosso State – 43% Penetration Milho Segunda Safra Source: Agrosatélite

13 Soybeans /Brazil – Production and Exports Forecast (5 years)
Soybeans Production (mmt) Soybeans Exports (mmt) Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.

14 Corn /Brazil – Production and Exports Forecast (5 years)
Corn Production (mmt) Corn Exports (mmt) Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.

15 Extension of Norte-Sul Railway to Vila do Conde
Logistics – Main Projects / 5 years 2014 2013 (Auction) Paving of BR-163 from Guarantã do Norte/MT to Santarém/PA + River Port of Miritituba/PA + Port of Santana/AP Extension of Norte-Sul Railway to Vila do Conde Santana Santarém Vila do Conde Itaqui Itacoatiara Marabá Miritituba Balsas Uruçuí Porto Velho Colinas Alô Brasil Querência LEM 2016 Sorriso Ribeirão Cascalheira Uruaçu 2015 Extension of Norte-Sul Railway to Estrela d’Oeste + BR-080 building from BR-158, at Ribeirão Cascalheira/MT, to Uruaçu/GO Unaí Rio Verde Paving of BR-158 from Alô Brasil/MT to Villa Rica/MT + River Port of Marabá/PA + Port of Vila do Conde/PA Catalão Estrela d’Oeste ALL MP Santos Legend: Highway Railway Waterway City Port Production Cluster Paranaguá São Francisco do Sul Rio Grande Source: DNIT, PAC, VALE, ALL, Ministério dos Transportes. Elaborated by Agroconsult

16 North, Northeast and Center-West:
Logistics – Brazil Soybeans and Corn Exports Producing Regions 2012 Exporting Ports Santarém (2%) North, Northeast and Center-West: 88 MMT 54% Itaqui (6%) North, Northeast and Center-West: 8,2 MMT 16% Itacoatiara (4%) Aratu (3%) Vitória (7%) South and Southeast: 75 MMT 46% South and Southeast: 44,5MMT 84% Santos (37%) Paranaguá (22%) São Francisco do Sul (8%) Current Ports Rio Grande (10%) Source: Secex. Elaborated by Agroconsult

17 North, Northeast and Center-West:
Logistics – Brazil Soybeans and Corn Exports Producing Regions 2022 Exporting Ports Santana (5%) Santarém (6%) North, Northeast and Center-West: 111 MMT 57% Itaqui (11%) North, Northeast and Center-West: 43 MMT 39% Vila do Conde (7%) Itacoatiara (4%) Aratu (4%) Vitória (5%) South and Southeast: 82 MMT 43% South and Southeast: 68 MMT 61% Santos (26%) Paranaguá (17%) São Francisco do Sul (6%) Current Ports Future Ports (Projects) Rio Grande (7%) Source: Agroconsult

18 Logistics – New projects in the MT State (North Region)
MT – Sorriso – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu) Current Routes: Port of Santos and Paranagua Sorriso ALL Santos Paranaguá New Route: BR Port of Miritituba + Port of Santarem or Santana (8%) Santana BR-163 Tapajós / Amazonas Santarém Miritituba Sorriso Logistics costs: 25% Reduction Logistics costs: 27% Reduction Source: Agroconsult

19 Logistics – Soybeans Waiting Cost of Shippers at Ports
Waiting (Oil and Demurrage) (USD/bu) Source: Agroconsult

20 Logistics – New projects in the MT state (East Region)
MT – Querência – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu) Current Routes: Port of Santos and Paranagua Santos Paranaguá ALL Pederneiras Paraná / Tietê Querência São Simão New Route: BR Port of Maraba + Port of Vila do Conde (7%) BR-158 Querência Vila do Conde Marabá Logistics costs: 47% Reduction Logistics costs: 18% Reduction Source: Agroconsult

21 Logistics – New projects in the MT state (East Region)
MT – Querência – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu) Current Routes: Port of Santos and Paranagua Santos Paranaguá ALL Pederneiras Paraná / Tietê Querência São Simão New Route: BR FNS + Port of Itaqui (6%) Querência Itaqui BR-080 Uruaçu Logistics costs: 43% Reduction FNS Logistics costs: 7% Reduction Source: Agroconsult

22 Logistics – Current logistics in the MA and PR state
MA – Balsas – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu) Itaqui FNS Balsas Porto Franco PR – Cascavel – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu) Cascavel Paranaguá Source: Agroconsult

23 Logistics – Brazil Competitiveness
U.S. / IOWA – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu) St. Louis New Orleans Davenport Mississippi ARG – North of BA – Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu) Rosário Junín 35% Export Tax Source: Agroconsult

24 Logistics – Brazil Competitiveness
CIF Cost to CHINA – Comparison of BRA, USA and ARG (USD/bu) With Land Rent Without Land Rent Source: Agroconsult

25 Logistics – Brazil Competitiveness
FOB Cost – Comparison of BRA, USA and ARG (USD/bu) With Land Rent Without Land Rent Source: Agroconsult

26 Compound Average Soybeans FOB Cost :
Soybeans FOB Costs (USD/bu) 12,7 USD/bu 11,6 12,3 12,1 11,5 12,8 11,4 USD/bu 10,9 Santana Compound Average Soybeans FOB Cost : USD 12,1 / bu Santarém Itaqui Vila do Conde Itacoatiara 11,1 USD/bu 11,5 USD/bu Aratu Lowest < 11,0 USD/bu 11,0 – 11,5 USD/bu Vitória FOB Cost 11,5 – 12,0 USD/bu Santos 12,0 – 12,5 USD/bu Paranaguá São Francisco do Sul > 12,5 USD/bu Highest Current Ports Future Ports (Projects) Rio Grande Source: Agroconsult. FOB Cost including land rent.

27 Perspectivas para os Mercados Agrícolas 2012/13
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28 Perspectivas para os Mercados Agrícolas 2012/13
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