Modelos Computacionais para Simulação do Processo de Expansão da Esquistossomose na Área Litorânea de Pernambuco (coord.) Departamento de Estatística e Informática - DEINFO/UFRPE Centro de Pesquisas Aggeu Magalhães - CPqAM/FIOCRUZ Laboratório de Geoprocessamento e Sensoreamento Remoto - GEOCERE/UFRPE Laboratório de Realidade Virtual e Visualização Científica – SVVR/LNCC

CASE STUDY Towards Computational Epidemiology Using Stochastic Cellular Automata in Modeling Spread of Diseases around the world… Computational Epidemiology Research Laboratory University of North Texas {venkatac, This research is in part supported by the National Science Foundation award: NSF

BR on modeling epidemics … Ordinary differential equations Stochastic Methods Modeling Simulation Linear and Non-Linear Programming Otimization USP Lectures HEP5710 Mathematical Models in Epidemiology Informatics Department - Codage/USP

Stochastic Cellular Automata a global model… Definition of a Fuzzy Set Neighborhood of cell Ci,j is global SCA G i,j := {(C k,l, Υ C i,j, C k,l ) |for all C k,l Є C, 0 ≤ Υ C i,j, C k,l ≤ 1} C is a set of all cells in the CA. Υ C i,j, C k,l represents an interaction coefficient that controls all possible interactions between a cell Ci,j and its global neighborhood Gi,j. A function of inter-cell distance and cell population density.

Itamaracá, CPqAM/FIOCRUZ!!!!

CPqAM/FIOCRUZ… a lot of information!!

a cellular automata Vaccination Population Demographics Disease Parameters Data Sets Visualization Interaction factors Distances

Composition Model -Experiment Population distribution over the north Denton region. Total Population of distributed over a grid size of 50 * 100. Total Population infected at the end of simulation: Infected Population distribution over the north Denton region.

Goals… Designing tools for investigating local disease clusters through simulation. What’s New? –Utilizing GIS and EPI information for modeling –Combining different simulation paradigms –Designing a tool kit to establish a computational epidemiology model to

How? CNPq Project: UFRPE and CPqAM/FIOCRUZ –CMS – Content Management Systems –Mathematical studies –Monitoring and modelling –Analysis e reports

Who? Jones Albuquerque, Computer Science Engineering Systems (DEINFO/UFRPE) Silvana Bocanegra, Computer Science Mathematics (DEINFO/UFRPE) UFRPE GEOCERE Computer Science Biology UFABC (Tereza Raquel, Mathematics/UFABC) FIOCRUZ CPqAM Constança Barbosa, Biology (CPqAM/FIOCRUZ) Reinaldo Santos, Imaging Processing and Biology (FIOCRUZ-Rio) Mathematics LNCC (Paulo Sérgio, SVVR/LNCC)

When? Phases –CMS and Epidemiology 2006/2007 –Mathematics 2007 –Computer Science 2007/2008 –Information System 2008 –Software Engineering 2008