BRAZILS ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: AN OVERVIEW Edmar Bacha Stern School of Business, NYU September 28, 2012 1.

Apresentação em tema: "BRAZILS ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: AN OVERVIEW Edmar Bacha Stern School of Business, NYU September 28, 2012 1."— Transcrição da apresentação:

1 BRAZILS ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: AN OVERVIEW Edmar Bacha Stern School of Business, NYU September 28, 2012 1

2 SUMMARY Inflation record, before and after 1994 GDP growth experience Recent macroeconomic indicators Some structural challenges 2

3 THE TWO BRAZILS: INFLATION BEFORE AND AFTER THE 1994 REAL PLAN 3

4 MONTHLY INFLATION FROM JAN 1980 TO THE REAL PLAN (JULY 1994) 4

5 MONTHLY INFLATION AFTER THE REAL PLAN, 7/1994-12/2011 5

6 ANNUAL INFLATION RATE, 1980-1993 6

7 ANNUAL INFLATION RATE, 1995-2011 7

8 GDP GROWTH, 1901-2011 8

9 GDP GROWTH, 1948-2011 9

10 POST-WW-II GDP GROWTH, SELECTED PERIODS PIBPIB per capita 1951-807,1%4,3% 1981-941,9%-0,1% 1995-20042,6%1,0% 2005-104,2%3,1% 2011-12 2,3%1,4% 10

11 AVERAGE ANNUAL REAL GROWTH RATE OF HOUSEHOLD PER CAPITA INCOME, 1999-2009 11

12 PER CAPITA HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROWTH, 2009-2011 12

13 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2002.3-2012.7 13

14 NET PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT, 1991.01-2012.01 (% GDP) 14

15 REAL OVERNIGHT INTEREST RATE, 1996.01-2012.01 (p.y.) 15

16 GROSS AND NET EXTERNAL DEBT AS A RATIO OF G&S EXPORTS, 1970.IV-2011.III 16

17 BRAZILS GDP IN USD: RANK AND VALUE, 2000-2011 17

18 REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (2005=100) (1980/12 TO 2012/5, 12 MO MA) 18

19 BRAZILS INVESTMENT RATE:RECENT EVOLUTION AND COMPARISON WITH OTHER L.A. COUNTRIES Argentina 23.6 Bolivia 15.9 Brazil 18.7 Chile 22.5 Colombia 22.7 Ecuador 25.4 Mexico 25.2 Panama 24.3 Paraguay 18.3 Peru 22.8 Uruguay 19.6 Mean 21.7 19

20 IS THIS SUSTAINABLE? A/Y -1 = (P-1) + Z 20

21 G&S IMPORTS OVER GDP (%): BRAZIL, OTHER L.A. COUNTRIES, BRICS (2007-11 RANGE) Argentina16-22 Brazil11-13 Chile32-40 Colombia17-20 Mexico29-32 Peru20-27 China22-30 India24-30 Russia20-22 South Africa28-34 Average (except BR)23-28 21

22 SOURCES FOR THE SLIDES S3: Miriam Leitão, Saga Brasileira: A Longa Luta de um Povo por sua Moeda. Record, 2011: 260- 261. S4-S7: Henrique Carvalho, IPCA e IGP-M: Inflação Histórica no Brasil, February 21, 2011. Avaliable at: www.hcinvestimentos.com/2011/02/21/ipca-igpm-inflacao-historica/.www.hcinvestimentos.com/2011/02/21/ipca-igpm-inflacao-historica/ S8, S10, S14-S19: Armando Castelar, Desempenho Recente e Perspectivas de Crescimento da Economia Brasileira. Presentation to the Seminar: Whither Latin America? Rio de Janeiro: Vargas Foundation, August 9-10, 2012. S9: Edmar Bacha and Regis Bonelli, Accounting for the rise and fall of Brazils Post-WW-II GDP growth, July 2012. Available at: www.iepecdg.com.br.www.iepecdg.com.br S11: Edmar Bacha, Introdução. In: E. Bacha, Belíndia 2.0: Fábulas e Ensaios sobre o País dos Contrastes. Civilização Brasileira, 2012, forthcoming. S12: IPEA, Ä decada inclusiva (2001-2011): desigualdade, pobreza e politicas de renda, Comunicados do IPEA n. 153, Sept., 25, 2012. S13: Thanks to Aurelio Bicalho, from Banco Itaú BBA. S20: Edmar Bacha, Bonança externa e desindustrialização: uma análise do período 2005-2011. In: E. Bacha and M. de Bolle (eds.), O Futuro da Indústria no Brasil: Desindustrialização em Debate. Civilização Brasileira, 2012, forthcoming. S21: Edmar Bacha, Brazils Growth Potential: Some Numerical Exercises. Presentation to the Seminar: Whiter Latin America? Rio de Janeiro: Vargas Foundation, August 9-10, 2012. 22