Strengthening urban mobility planning in Brazil: opportunities and challenges Ana Nassar

Mobility challenges in Brazil Investments in urban transport are unsatisfactory and didn’t follow the rapid increase in urbanization rates (86% of the population in urban areas). Fiscal incentives and infrastructure for cars and motorcycles: increase in motorization rates. Urban sprawl and spatial mismatch emphasizing low income suburbs exclusion. Investments in urban transport are unsatisfactory. At the same time, we see many incentives (policy + finance) for cars and motorcycles, leading to an increase in motorization rates. País já urbanizado.

Long distances travelled everyday From 2004 to 2014, the number of people spending more than 1 hour in their daily commuting increased from 11 to 17% in the 10 biggest metropolitan regions in Brazil. This increase is even higher for lower income populations. Social and environmental negative externalities, including pollution, traffic jams, GHG emissions, accidents.

Increase in motorization rate in Brazil Aumento da taxa de motorização foi de 95% entre 2001 e 2014 nas 17 principais RMs segundo observatório das metrópoles

A first step was taken… National Urban Mobility Policy (2012): opportunity to accelerate investments on sustainable urban mobility. Priority to non motorized over motorized transport and priority to collective over individual modes of transport. Mobility plans mandatory for cities above 20.000 inhabitants (3.325 cities in Brazil). The plans should define the objectives, targets, strategies and projects to improve people’ and goods movements in a city. Paradigm’s shift: planning for people, prioritizing active and collective modes of transport.

…but is it enough? 4 years later, less than 10% of cities have finalized their plans due to lack of technical and institutional capacity. Are there effective sticks and carrots to ensure implementation? A good plan does not necessarily correspond to effective project implementation. Out of the 378 projects funded by the Growth Acceleration Program, 69% were not implemented. Plans developed for major Brazilian cities still lack key strategic components (such as TDM and integration with metropolitan planning). PMUS RJ: sem menção a RMRJ

Lack of integrated urban planning Only 31,59% of the social housing units built by the federal program Minha Casa Minha Vida in the city of Rio de Janeiro are located near transit.

Who pays the bill? 2007 – 2015: significant participation of federal investments, mostly for projects. Current economic scenario: economic retraction and cut in federal investments. Cities are fiscally fragile and are greatly dependent of federal investments. In 2011, 77% of Brazilian cities generated less than 20% of their revenues. Most cities don’t have regular and predictable funding for urban mobility. Além de expandir os investimentos em transporte urbano (com prioridade para transporte coletivo e transportes ativos), precisamos redirecionar os recursos públicos que atualmente incentivam o uso do automóvel.

Monitoring & Evaluation How do we monitor implementation with effective participation from civil society? How do we evaluate if we are moving towards the expected results? How do we measure the policies impacts and benefits for the population? How do we know if we need to change or revise our strategy during implementation? Observatório de Mobilidade de BH Inimigo do planejamento: ciclos políticos.

Population Near Transit in Rio: 47% Metropolitan Rio: 28% City of Rio: 36% / 47% / 56% (2020)

Planning for the future Mobility planning should consider potential risks and vulnerabilities, such as climate change impacts that may negatively impact mobility infrastructure and affect people and goods movements. Climate change adaptation and mitigation measures should be designed and implemented now considering the long term costs of inaction. Mobility planning: plans and projects Transporte – principal fonte de emissões das cidades. Pressão para focar em veículos elétricos – o que estamos mudando?

Risks and vulnerabilities should be part of the plan! Cities >100k inhabitants in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro with high vulnerability and low capacity to adapt urban mobility to climate change A Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro tem grande quantidade de municípios no grupo de vulnerabilidade “superior” (Figura 3.51). Dez dos quatorze municípios estão com índices de vulnerabilidade na faixa “superior”. Em geral, eles apresentam maiores valores para Sensibilidade e menores para Capacidade Adaptativa. A Sensibilidade é influenciada por maiores TMV, precariedade deslocamento pedestres, maior histórico de desastres naturais, maior número relativo de pessoas em áreas com algum risco a inundação (7,7 milhões de pessoas).

facebook.com/ITDPBrasil ana.nassar@itdp.org Thank you! www.itdpbrasil.org.br @ITDPBRASIL facebook.com/ITDPBrasil ana.nassar@itdp.org