Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers in Brasil Cassio M.Turra Demography Department Cedeplar, UFMG

Value of National Transfer Accounts Fundamental question: how do different age groups, including children and the elderly, acquire and use economic resources? How are access and use to resources influenced by changes in population age structure: – demographic dividends and economic growth? – generational equity? – financial markets and asset prices? – sustainability of public and private support systems? What policies should be considered to best prepare for coming demographic change?

Gap in National Statistical Systems System of National Accounts and other aggregate economic data provide little information about how different generations or age groups produce, consume, share, and accumulate economic resources. National Transfer Accounts fills this gap.

Global Age Transition Need for NTA is great because of rapid changes in population age structure. Low income countries:Share of children in decline and share in working ages is rising High income countries:Share in working‐ages is in decline and share of elderly is rising.

The Generational Economy

Per capita public and private transfers, and asset-based resource flows by age: Brazil, 1996

Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason, Dec 9, Jornal Valor Econômico Julho de 2000

Most importante findings Public transfers biased toward the elderly Public transfers are the main source of consumption at older ages, regardless of SES Among children, public transfers concentrated among lower SES groups. Private transfers to higher SES groups. Rapid reduction in poverty among the elderly, but not among children. Period x Cohort effects! Inequity: over the life cycle, younger generations paid for the expansion of transfers to currently elderly 8

Most importante findings Large fiscal pressures (ignored in the last 10 years. Now the issue is back!) First demographic dividend started in 1970 and will end by Expansion of LFPR may give another decade Second demographic dividend (productivity and savings): negative? 9

50 years of elderly empowerment in Brazil with Wajnman and Marteleto

Proportional changes in the composition of adults by income deciles,

Head, spouse, siblingsHead’s generation A classification for elderly (60+) households 1.Living alone 2.One generation household: elderly living only with a collateral kin 3.Multi-generational household: elderly living in hhs with at least two generations Generations in the Household Classification according to the perspective of the elderly parents, grandparents, in-lawsolder generation Head, spouse, siblingsHead’s generation children, grandchildren, great-grand childrenyounger generation

Increasing prevalence of elderly living alone or in one generation households 8% 27%

Proportion of people 60+ living alone over time in selected countries

Generations in the Household Classification according to the perspective of the elderly Group 1 parents, grandparents, in-lawsolder generation Head, spouse, siblings, in-lawsHead’s generation children, grandchildren, great-grand children younger generation Group 2 parents, grandparents, in-lawsolder generation head, spouse, siblings, in-lawsHead’s generation children, grandchildren, great-grand children younger generation Group 3 parents, grandparents, in-lawsolder generation head, spouse, siblings, in-lawsHead’s generation children, grandchildren, great-grand childrenyounger generation A classification for multi-generational households

Increasing prevalence of elderly living as the head generation in multi-generational hhs

Increasing share of income earned by older and head’s generation in the multi-gerational hhs

1970 x 2010: Share of living alone higher in any educ group Less educated have lower prevalence of multigen hh Convergence?

1970 x 2010: Increasing prevalence of elderly living as the head generation in multi-generation households Particularly among the less educated

1970 x 2010: in multi-gen hhs, when the elderly is in the older generation, share of income is increasing Particularly among the less educated

Summary Elderly are more likely to live alone or in one generation hhs, particularly the less educated There has been increasing financial independence among elderly living in multi-generational hhs But we have not looked at the consumption side yet!

Intergenerational Public Transfers:

23 Public Expenditures (share of GDP), Brazil,

Education enrollment by year & SES Social Security coverage by year & SES

25 Net Public Transfers (YoLYs) by Age, Brazil, selected years

26 Absolute variation in net public transfers (YoLYs) by age, and proportional change in the age distribution, Brazil,

27 Aggregate net public transfers for large age groups (% of the GDP): actual and simulated scenarios,

28 Net public transfers to children (0-19) and elderly (60-90) for a recent year in 17 countries and selected years for Brazil.

29

Envelhecimento populacional no Brasil: Bônus ou ônus?

Respostas Recorrentes ( !) Não há problema de financiamento dos benefícios para idosos. Com o pré-sal cresceremos a taxas suficientemente altas para cobrirmos os custos do envelhecimento. O Brasil é um país que trata muito mal seus idosos. A questão não é como manter, mas como aumentar os benefícios. O problema está no pagamento dos juros. Uma reforma profunda da previdência social resolveria o problema imediatamente. O tempo político é distinto do tempo demográfico.

OADR & POADR, Brazil, Turra & Rios-Neto 2015 See also: Lutz, Scherbov, Sanderson

Discussão Sistemas de suporte do idoso (previdência, saúde e cuidados de longa duração) têm que considerar envelhecimento populacional e famílias menores. Mercado: pacto intergeracional na saúde suplementar Definição de idoso tem que ser flexível Quanto antes forem as reformas, melhor: desigualdade intergeracional poderá ser um problema Migração Internacional Produtividade precisará crescer mais rápido (qualidade na educação, infra-estrutura, ambiente de negócios, economia aberta) Incentivos para poupança, educação financeira

O tamanho da nossa ignorância Diferenciais de mortalidade por renda, educação... Determinantes da saúde e mortalidade no ciclo de vida Probabilidades de transição no ciclo de vida Compressão da morbidade Transições de saúde e decisões de aposentadoria Transições de saúde e transferências intra e inter-domiciliares Mudanças nas políticas e decisões de aposentadoria Uso do tempo e cuidadores Formação de poupança no ciclo de vida

The Data are coming!!!