Dimencoes Humanas das Mudancas Globais Ambientais: Os desafios para LBA _____________ Human Dimensions & Global Environmental Change: The challenge for.

Apresentação em tema: "Dimencoes Humanas das Mudancas Globais Ambientais: Os desafios para LBA _____________ Human Dimensions & Global Environmental Change: The challenge for."— Transcrição da apresentação:

1 Dimencoes Humanas das Mudancas Globais Ambientais: Os desafios para LBA _____________ Human Dimensions & Global Environmental Change: The challenge for LBA Emilio F. Moran Indiana University

2 What are “human dimensions”? NOT JUST ANTHROPOLOGY, OR GEOGRAPHY OR SOCIOLOGY OR ECONOMICS OR “SOCIAL SCIENCES”

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4 Human dimensions is a way of thinking about how we do the science: caring to know what civil society thinks, what are their priorities, what do they do, what do they want to know? In short, how do people impact the environment, and how does the environment impact people

5 What are the reciprocal relations between people and the environment?

6 One of the biggest obstacles we face is the traditional division of labor in doing science, where there is a lack of understanding between the natural and the social sciences —we need to move towards defining the research questions together so they constitute integrative questions about human-environment interactions

7 For example, we can begin to examine how a change in the price of a commodity (e.g. cacao) in the world market affects the behavior of farmers (how long before farmers begin to increase area planted), and how this shift in land use affects biogeochemical fluxes (is the shift from forest to cacao, from pasture to cacao, from secondary forest to cacao), and how long after prices collapse do farmers shift away from it, and those impacts on the physical system and household income.

8 We need to recognize that to do human dimensions, we need to incorporate what matters to people into what we examine scientifically, and that we need to think how to transfer knowledge to society, knowledge they can use

9 We need to ask integrated questions and to invest in getting integrative answers. For example we currently have the capability to observe the earth every few days, daily with some satellites…. And even with this knowledge we have trouble capturing what is happening

10 1970 Área de colonização lotes

11 1973 Área de colonização lotes

12 1976 Área de colonização lotes

13 1979 Área de colonização lotes

14 1985 Área de colonização lotes

15 1988 Área de colonização lotes

16 1991 Área de colonização lotes

17 1996 Área de colonização lotes

18 Now, just think about the problem of having an observation of the human population in each country only every ten years, through the demographic census…. How do we link daily observations to decadal observations? How do we link natural and social sciences?

19 Putting the parts together We need to sit together with a real interest in surpassing our disciplinary biases, adding respect for the way others think try to link data critically deal with how to sample and how to measure how to deal with the whole rather than only with the parts– this will require humility, learning a lot of different ways to get at a problem, and to jointly choose the best approach for the question asked. Actually working together in the field in one of the best ways…

20 Grandes Desafios das Ciencias Ambientais (NRC) 200 temas foram considerados 8 desafios foram seleccionados 4 deles para acao imediata Sine qua non de cada desafio: integracao das ciencias sociais e naturais

21 Os 8 Desafios Ciclos biogeoquimicos Diversidade Biologica e Funcionamento do Ecossistema Variabilidade Climatica Sistemas Hidrologicos Doencas Infecciosas e meio ambiente Instituicoes e Uso de Recursos Dinamica do Uso da Terra Innovacoes no uso de materiais

22 4 desafios: Acao imediata #1 Diversidade Biologica e Funcionamente dos Ecossistemas Atividades: Desenho e manejo de habitats que possam suportar uso pela biota nativa e uso humano; Impacto da perda da diversidade para a sociedade e os servicos do ecossistema

23 #2 Previsao dos Sistemas Hidrologicos: Atividades: estudo das consequencias das mudancas nos regimes hidrologicos; estudos das atividades que afetam os sistemas aquaticos

24 #3 Doencas Infecciosas e Meio Ambiente Atividades: estudos sinteticos e evolutivos das doencas infecciosas que afetam saude humana, e da flora e fauna; desenvolvimento de uma nova area interdisciplinar com enfoque nos efeitos das interacoes ecologicas sobre a selecao de agentes patogenicos e sua virulencia.

25 # 4 Dynamica do Uso da Terra Atividades: estudos espacialmente explicitos sobre as mudancas no uso da terra e na cobertura terrestre, as consequencias destas mudancas. Novas formas de simulacao dinamica e espacial.

26 Avancando na area de dimensoes humanas Estudos a nivel regional Papel de Centros de Pesquisa Integrada Crescer o treinamento em pesquisa interdisciplinar Da disciplinaridade para a pesquisa integrada e interdisciplinar Garantindo que a Ciencia beneficia os varios setores da sociedade, e nao so um

27 SCIENCE PLANNING for the new Global Land Project IGBP and IHDP CO-CHAIRS: Dennis Ojima Emilio Moran

28 The Global LAND Project Co-chairs: Emilio Moran and Dennis Ojima

29 HERITAGE OF LAND GCTE AND LUCC

30 GCTE Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems [gcte.org] GCTE Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems [gcte.org] Global Change Effect s on Vegetation and Disturbance Regimes Global Change, Agroecological Processes and Production Systems Contemporary and Future Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks Changing Biodiversity and its Consequences on Ecosystem Functioning

31 Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) Focus one: Comparative Case Studies Focus 2:Observations of Land Use/Cover Change Focus 3: Integrative Assessment and Modeling

32 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTIONS (formal and informal) POLICY (Incentives, Conservation, Land tenure) Culture (Perception, values, Ethics) ECONOMY (valuation, cost- benefit) DEMOGRAPHY (Number, gender, Consumption, age) BioGeochemistry (soil fertility, OM levels, Fluxes) BioDiversity (Species, community, Landscape, Genetic, Functional) BioPhysics (albedo, Energy exchange, Structure) LAND USE GCTE LUCC

33 Origins IGBP I, IHDP, WCRP, DIVERSITAS GCTE, LUCC, BAHC, IGAC and PAGES, and contributions of many more “Terrestrial Futures” meeting Assessment Community (e.g., IPCC, MEA, etc.)

34 OBJETIVO do Global Land Project OBJETIVO do Global Land Project IDENTIFICAR, E AVALIAR AS MUDANCAS NO SISTEMA HUMANO-AMBIENTAL E OS THRESHOLDS DE VULNERABILIDADE EM VARIAS ESCALAS: LOCAL, REGIONAL E GLOBAL

35 Drivers and Dynamics Goods and Services Vulnerabilidade Thematic approaches:

36 Tema 1: Drivers and Dynamics (Exemplos de Atividades) Mudancas no ciclo de Nitrogenio Interacoes entre as mudancas climaticas e as mudancas criadas pela populacao humana Mudancas no uso da terra e o resultado em movimentos de gases, aerosoles, e sedimentos Mudancas na frequencia e magnitude de fogo com as mudancas globais Mudancas historicas no estoques de carbono

37 Tema 2: Goods and Services (Exemplos de Atividades) Impacto e feedbacks da agricultura Multiple Estresses multiples e a capacidade e resiliencia dos sistemas terrestres em estocar o carbono Como os sistemas biofisicos e humanos interagem para afetar a vulnerabilidade dos sistemas complexos?

38 Tema 3: Vulnerabilidade (Exemplos de Atividades) As diferencas em escala das vulnerabilidades dos sistemas naturais e humanos Dinamicas da paisagem urbano Mudancas na distribuicao da biodiversidade em sistemas dominados pela acao humana e as consequencias para a vulnerabilidade destes sistemas

39 The Earth System Ecosystem Services Integrative Analysis and Modeling T3.1 Emergent Properties & Thresholds T3.2 Vulnerability- Sustainability T3.3 Effective governance T3.4 Data and models T1: Causes and Nature of Land System Change T2: Consequences of Land System Change T3: Integrative Analysis and Modeling Decision making Environment Sub-System [ Ecosystem] BGC Biodiversity Biophysical properties Water Soils NPP and Yields Pest and Diseases Pollinators Herbivores Human Sub- System Agent heterogeneity Institutions Markets & infrastructure Population Culture and knowledge systems Environmental histories Technology T1.1 T1.2 T2.4 T2.3 T1.3 Land Use & Management Coupled Land System Disturbance T2.1 T2.2

40 Trade-offs in multi-use landscapes extensiveintensive urban protected Intended high food production Unintended water and air pollution, biodiversity loss Intended nature conservation, recreation Unintended changed fire regime Trade-offs within individual land use types spatial arrangement and connections across land use types spatial and temporal scales Global and regional context Regional trade-offs

41 Foley et al. 2003 Effects of climate-induced land cover change on surface properties of transition zones

42 Spread of Population Over Indiana 1810-1880

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45 Forest Wetland Prairie Water Row Crop Pasture/Grassland Urban Landcover Circa 1820 (Lindsey) Landcover 1992 (Indiana GAP Analysis) Landcover has Changed from Primarily Forest to Primarily Agriculture

46 Indiana has Experienced Massive Deforestation in the 1800s Followed by Reforestation in this Century Primary Forest Secondary Forest

47 IHDP Global Change and Human Security Core Project

48 Aids is not just a direct killer but a major contributor to famine, according to aid agencies. Some countries are expected to lose a quarter of their agricultural workforce to Aids by 2020. Early deaths deprive new generations of vital knowledge about farming methods, while food consumption in families hit by HIV/Aids drops by up to 40%.

49 O impacto da globalizacao economica Perda da autonomia das pessoas, no primeiro e no terceiro mundo Acordos mercantis regionais resultam na imposicao de estrategias que danificam o ambiente Esforcos dos cidadaos limitados a escolher entre alternativas parecidas, e nao questionar o conceito mesmo Nao e facil questionar o processo

50 Interstate 69 “The NAFTA Corridor”

51 Connection to the International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP)

52 Comparison of Land Use Systems Institutions Biodiversity and Conservation Vulnerability and Sustainability Population and Environment

53 Declining Age-Specific Fertility Source: Authors’ estimates from 1998 survey data

54 Source: Authors’ estimates from 2003 survey data

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56 Dimensoes Humanas no LBA Levantamento bibliografico revelou na decada dos 90 97 livros, 87 monografias, 120 teses e disertacoes e grande numero de artigos e capitulos

57 Temas principais tratados: Populacao e Desenvolvimento Populacoes Indigenas Migracao e Demografia Politicas Publicas para Amazonia Atividades agropecuarias Economia Politica e Credito Rural Sistemas Urbanos e Industriais Agronegocios Educacao e Saude

58 What is lacking? Lack of syntheses at regional scale on major themes of HD

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61 Evans, T.P., et al. 2001 Ecological Modelling 143:95-113

62 K. Lim, et al. In press

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64 1972-73 1977-78 Chuvas em Santarém Anos de 1980-2000 e Anos de El Nino Anos de seca mais lembrados Anos de El Nino

65 Efeitos de um Ano Seco

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67 What do the local people think? In some locations, they are mobilizing: concerned with what they recognize are changes in local patterns of precipitation In the two regions, i.e. Altamira and Santarem, they comment that the rainy season now commonly starts two months later than it did just 25 years ago In Santarem, the vulnerability is even greater during ENSO events, when drought increases the vulnerability of forests to burn They understand there must be a connection between forest cover and precipitation– and want to create a large protected area to ensure adequate precipitation for their agriculture

68 What is needed? Invest in syntheses of knowledge already available Connecting syntheses to major themes of HD Create a database of researchers to facilitate creation of networks Identify an agenda for what should be addressed next as priorities in research on HD Focus on underlying factors: intra-regional migration processes and public policies that affect human-environment dynamics (particularly infrastructure, environmental management, and zoning)

69 New approaches are needed to link science to society: engaging stakeholders in defining what they need to know to solve environmental problems and have science deliver the tools and information. Finding common ground and working together as scientists in the service of civil society THANK YOU