Crise, Economia e Inovação Social: O Papel da Mobilidade Ocupacional e Empreendedorismo em Portugal Miguel Amaral

Apresentação em tema: "Crise, Economia e Inovação Social: O Papel da Mobilidade Ocupacional e Empreendedorismo em Portugal Miguel Amaral"— Transcrição da apresentação:

1 Crise, Economia e Inovação Social: O Papel da Mobilidade Ocupacional e Empreendedorismo em Portugal Miguel Amaral (miguel.amaral@ist.utl.pt)

2 1.Universities, Knowledge Creation and Diffusion Higher education policy Academic inbreeding: effects on communication flows, scientific output and quality Highly qualified human resources: brain drain, brain gain, and brain circulation World class universities and internationalization “Glonacalization” of academic culture, work and outputs Academic research funding policies and higher education diversity The university technology transfer process University-based entrepreneurship Universities and knowledge spillovers Knowledge creation, diffusion and accessibility Laboratory of Technology Policy and Management of Technology

3 2. Technological Change, Strategy and Innovation  Technology adoption processes and workplace organization  The evolution of knowledge-intensive industries  Technological catch-up and socioeconomic development  Sociotechnical change and organizational dynamics  Dynamic capabilities and innovation  Open innovation cooperation  Knowledge protection strategies  Capturing value from innovation  Innovation and firm output  Technology Diffusion and Economic Inequality  Innovation and internal corporate structure  Market structure, Innovation and industry dynamics.  Sectoral taxonomies of innovative firms  Firm size and Innovation – Schumpeterian tradition

4 Laboratory of Technology Policy and Management of Technology 3. Entrepreneurial behavior and business development Entrepreneurial experience and wage differentials Entrepreneurial human capital and skill composition Occupational choice and transitions into – and out of – entrepreneurship Habitual entrepreneurship: differences among nascent, serial and portfolio entrepreneurs Entrepreneurial activity among minority groups in society (eg: individuals with disability) Social groups that are underrepresented in entrepreneurship (eg: women) Entrepreneurial Teams Technology-based entrepreneurship Business incubation and entrepreneurial dynamics Enterprise demography and Business diversification Social entrepreneurship Entrepreneurship and firm performance High growth entrepreneurship (eg: gazelles) Entrepreneurship, job creation and regional development Culture, institutions and entrepreneurial activity

5 OUTPUT - NÍVEL MACRO: Baptista, R. e J. Leitão, Eds. (2009), Public Policies for Fostering Entrepreneurship: a European Perspective. Series: International Studies in Entrepreneurship, Vol. 22, ISBN: 978-1-4419-0248-1 Springer. Baptista, R. (2010). "Culture, Political Institutions and the Regulation of Entry", em Thurik, R., Freytag, A. (Eds.), "Entrepreneurship and Culture", Springer, March 2010. Baptista, R., Escária, V. e P. Madruga (2008), “Entrepreneurship, Regional Development and Job Creation: the Case of Portugal”, Small Business Economics, Vol. 30, 49-58. Baptista, R. e C. Carias (2008). “Job Creation and Destruction by Small Businesses, and the Technology Regime: an Analysis of Portuguese Regions”, 12th International Joseph A. Schumpeter Society Conference, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 2-5 de Julho. Laboratory of Technology Policy and Management of Technology

6 OUTPUT - NÍVEL DA EMPRESA: Amaral, A.M., Baptista, R. e F. Lima (2008), “Entrepreneurial Exit and Firm Performance”, em Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research, Andrew Zacharakis et al. (eds.). Mendonça, J., Baptista, R. e F. Lima (2009), “Creation of Higher Education Institutions and Firm Entry: a Policy Evaluation”, em Entrepreneurship and Growth in Local, Regional and National Economies, David Smallbone, Hans Landström and Dylan Jones-Evans (eds.), Edward Elgar. Baptista, R. e M.T. Preto (2008). “Entrepreneurship and Industrial Re-Structuring: What Kinds of Start-ups Matter Most for Job Creation?”, 12th International Joseph A. Schumpeter Society Conference, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 2-5 de Julho. Baptista, R., Karaöz, M. e J. Leitão (2009), “Diversification by Young, Small Firms”, 2009 Strategic Management Society Annual Conference, Washington D.C., 11-14 de Outubro. Amaral, A.M., Baptista, R. e M. Flores (2008). “Does Entrepreneurial Experience Really Matter for Business Performance?”, 2008 Babson College Entrepreneurship Research Conference, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 4-7 de Junho. Laboratory of Technology Policy and Management of Technology

7 OUTPUT - NÍVEL DO INDIVÍDUO: Amaral, A.M., R. Baptista & F. Lima (2009). Serial Entrepreneurship: impact of human capital on time to re-entry. Small Business Economics Journal. DOI:10.1007/s11187-009-9232-4. Amaral, A.M., Baptista, R. e F. Lima (2008), “Entrepreneurial Exit and Firm Performance”, em Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research, Andrew Zacharakis et al. (eds.). Baptista, R., Lima, F. e M.T. Preto (2008), “Is there a Labor Market ‘Penalty’ to Entrepreneurship?”, em George T. Solomon (Ed.), Selected Papers from the Sixty-Seventh Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management. Preto, M.T., Baptista, R. e F. Lima (2009), "Switching from Paid Employment to Entrepreneurship: the Effect on Individuals’ Earnings”, em Entrepreneurship and Growth in Local, Regional and National Economies, David Smallbone, Hans Landström and Dylan Jones-Evans (eds.), Edward Elgar. Amaral, A.M., Baptista, R. e F. Lima (2009), “Becoming an Ex-entrepreneur: the Sell-out or Dissolution Decision”, em Entrepreneurship and Growth in Local, Regional and National Economies, David Smallbone, Hans Landström and Dylan Jones-Evans (eds.), Edward Elgar. Baptista, R., Karaöz, M. e J. Mendonça (2008), “Entrepreneurial Backgrounds, Human Capital and Start-up Success”, 2008 Strategic Management Society Annual Conference, Colónia, 12-15 de Outubro. Baptista, R., Lima, F. e M.T. Preto (2009), “The Impact of Entrepreneurial Characteristics on the Internal Organization of Small Firms,” 2009 Babson College Entrepreneurship Research Conference, Babson College, 6-8 de Junho. Laboratory of Technology Policy and Management of Technology

8 Dados – Quadros de Pessoal (GEP do Ministério da Segurança Social e do Trabalho, Portugal) IdentifiersPecuniary factors and working hours YearErnings – Regular,Irregular, Extra Identifier of the individualNr. of hours worked (per month) regular, extra Identifier of the firmRegular period of work (per week) Individuals’ demographicsDemography of firms GenderNumber of persons in the firm AgeNumber of establishments Date of birthEstablishing year NationalityNACE code (CAE) 1,2,3 and 6 digit Individuals’ occupational statusFirm Location Professional activity (1,2,3 and 6 digit)Parish, Municipality; District; Professional categoryRegions: NUTS I, II and III Professional Situation Date of admittance in the firmFinancial indicators and type of ownership Date of the last promotionSales volumes (Euros) Type of contractInicial capital (Euros) Partial /full time workLegal type of the business Share of National capital - Private (%) Individuals’ human capitalShare of National capital - Public (%) Level of qualificationShare of Foreign Capital (%) Education

9 Determinantes da Transição de uma Economia “de Gestores” p/ uma Economia “de Empreendedores” “Managed Economy”: Economias de escala Empregos seguros Estabilidade dos mercados Ciclos de vida longos para tecnologias e produtos Especialização da força de trabalho Globalização das empresas (multinacionais) Mercados bolsistas “Entrepreneurial Economy”: Tecnologias de informação Diferenciação da procura “Deseconomias” de escala Ciclos de vida curtos Educação da força de trabalho Crescimento dos serviços Desregulamentação dos mercados Capital de risco

10 A Empresa Como Unidade de Análise Criação de Empresas (Low & MacMillan, 1988) Novas Organizações (Gartner, 1988) Empresas Inovadoras (Schumpeter, 1934; Drucker,1985) Empresas que desenvolvem estratégias de Imitação (Ziegler, 1985; Schmitz, 1989) Performance de Empresas Estabelecidas (Covin & Slevin, 1991; Zahara, 1991) Criação de Novas Indústrias (Aldrich & Martinez, 2001)

11 Percepção Positiva Acerca do Papel do Empreendedorismo Source: EU Flash Eurobarometer, Entrepreneurship Survey, 2007, In OECD (2009), Measuring Entrepreneurship: A Collection of Indicators

12 Percepção Negativa Acerca do Papel do Empreendedorismo Source: EU Flash Eurobarometer, Entrepreneurship Survey, 2007, In OECD (2009), Measuring Entrepreneurship: A Collection of Indicators

13 Crescimento Económico: O papel do Empreendedorismo Model of the Production Function (Ex: Robert Solow) Paradigma Económico Tradicional Novo Paradigma Económico Endogenous Growth Model (Ex: Paul Romer) Paradigma da “Entrepreneurial Society” Knowledge Filter (Ex: David Audretsch)

14 Empreendedorismo e Crescimento Económico Causalidade?

15 Efeitos Directos e Indirectos da Criação de Empresas no Emprego a Nível Regional Time Lag Impact of New Firm Creation on employment Change over Time Turbulence and Selection Direct Effects Positive Supply- side Spillovers

16 0 Time Lag Impact of New Firm Creation on employment Change over Time Direct Effects Turbulence and Market Selection Positive Supply-side Spillovers 0 Portugal England Germany Spain Wales Source: Baptista, R., Escária, V. e P. Madruga (2008), “Entrepreneurship, Regional Development and Job Creation: the Case of Portugal”, Small Business Economics, Vol. 30, 49-58. Efeitos Directos e Indirectos da Criação de Empresas no Emprego a Nível Regional

17 Dimensão das empresas (2006) Source: EU Flash Eurobarometer, Entrepreneurship Survey 2007, In OECD (2009), Measuring Entrepreneurship: A Collection of Indicators

18 0 Time Lag Impact of New Firm Creation on employment Change over Time 0 Small Start-ups Large Start-ups Source: Baptista, R., Escária, V. e P. Madruga (2008), “Entrepreneurship, Regional Development and Job Creation: the Case of Portugal”, Small Business Economics, Vol. 30, 49-58. Efeitos Directos e Indirectos da Criação de Empresas no Emprego a Nível Regional

19 0 Time Lag Impact of New Firm Creation on employment Change over Time 0 Other Start-ups Knowledge-based Start-ups Source: Baptista, R., Escária, V. e P. Madruga (2008), “Entrepreneurship, Regional Development and Job Creation: the Case of Portugal”, Small Business Economics, Vol. 30, 49-58. Efeitos Directos e Indirectos da Criação de Empresas no Emprego a Nível Regional

20 Intensidade I&D por classe de Dimensão das empresas ( % Valor acrescentado) ( 2006) Source: OECD (2009), Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard, In OECD (2009), Measuring Entrepreneurship: A Collection of Indicators

21 Valor Acrescentado, por Classe de Dimensão (2006) Source:OECD (2009),uring Entrepreneurship: A Collection of Indicators

22 Distribuição Geográfica das EBT Source: Mendonça, J., Baptista, R. e F. Lima (2009), “Creation of Higher Education Institutions and Firm Entry: a Policy Evaluation”, em Entrepreneurship and Growth in Local, Regional and National Economies, D.Smallbone, H.Landström and Dylan Jones-Evans (eds.), Edward Elgar.

23  No. students in each year increase the probability of a new firm entry (1% per additional student)  No. graduates increase the probability of 1 more firm entering the market (0.5% per additional graduate)  No. of universities has a very significant impact (31%) High and Medium-high Tech Manufacturing  No. students in engineering and basic science have a positive effect on new firm entry  No. students in social sciences display a negative coefficient  No. graduates in engineering and basic science gave a negative coefficient Principais Resultados: Distribuição Geográfica das EBT

24 Acesso ao Crédito Source: OECD (2009), Measuring Entrepreneurship: A Collection of Indicators

25 Investimento em Capital de Risco (%PIB) Source: OECD (2009), Measuring Entrepreneurship: A Collection of Indicators

26 Cultura Empreendedora % Indivíduos que preferem ser empreendedores do que empregados por contra de outrem Source: EU Flash Eurobarometer, Entrepreneurship Survey 2007, In OECD (2009), Measuring Entrepreneurship: A Collection of Indicators

27 Educação Terciária (% População Total) (2007) Source: OECD (2009), Measuring Entrepreneurship: A Collection of Indicators

28 Nr. Obs = 1 173 241 Nr. Obs.% Dissolution7023931% Sell-out158070 69% Total Entrepreneurial Exits228309100% Saída do Empreendedorismo

29 Logit estimation reporting Marginal Effects Results significant at 1% Nr. Obs = 1 173 241 Nr. Individuals = 341 586 Saída do Empreendedorismo

30 Empreendedorismo e Inovação Social Entre os problemas sociais estão questões como a exclusão social, a desigualdade, a organização dos sistemas de saúde e de ensino, e o envelhecimento da população. Que Papel pode o Empreendedorismo assumir? Paradigma Tecnológico Paradigma Social Paradigma Económico

31 Grupos Minoritários no Empreendedorismo (Control) Entrepreneurship Society Minority Non- Minority Minority Non- Minority Conceptual Framework Disabled (?)Immigrant Women Senior (?)

32 NativesImmigrants IIIIIIIV VARIABLESAllStartersAllStarters Tertiary Education (dummy)0.762***0.752***0.920***1.313*** [0.014][0.058][0.087][0.258] Years in non-employment0.053***0.071***0.082***0.06 [0.002][0.005][0.020][0.099] Years as a paid-employee-0.115***-0.030***-0.587***-0.294 [0.001][0.005][0.071][0.382] Years as a business owner0.669***1.469***1.023***4.101*** [0.005][0.125][0.068][1.004] Experience in different firms (no. firms)0.130***-0.150***0.904***0.272 [0.004][0.019][0.096][0.660] Observations 2185664426991040672732 Pseudo R2 0.5450.4310.5210.672 Imigrantes – Resultados Preliminares

33 NativesImmigrants IIIIVV CONTROL VARIABLESAllStartersAllStarters Female (dummy)-0.347***-0.561***-0.264***-0.633** [0.008][0.037][0.066][0.264] Age0.026***0.008***0.035***-0.003 [0.000][0.002][0.003][0.012] Foreign Initial Investment (as a % of all initial investment) -0.020***-0.036***0.005***-0.006 [0.001][0.013][0.002][0.005] Firm size (No. of workers in the firm)-0.064***-0.161***-0.058***-0.190*** [0.002][0.015][0.006][0.043] Constant-2.818***-0.683***-4.943***-2.716*** [0.031][0.138][0.223][0.714] Observations2185664426991040672732 Pseudo R20.5450.4310.5210.672

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36 Crise, Economia e Inovação Social: O Papel da Mobilidade Ocupacional e Empreendedorismo em Portugal Miguel Amaral (miguel.amaral@ist.utl.pt)