Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Parte do Global Business Outlook 1 Uma pesquisa realizada por meio da parceria entre Duke University, Fundação.

Apresentação em tema: "Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Parte do Global Business Outlook 1 Uma pesquisa realizada por meio da parceria entre Duke University, Fundação."— Transcrição da apresentação:

1 Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Parte do Global Business Outlook 1 Uma pesquisa realizada por meio da parceria entre Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas e CFO magazine Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

2 Principais Preocupações para CFOs Latino- Americanos 2 1.Incertezas Econômicas 2.Risco Cambial 3.Políticas Governamentais 4.Enfraquecimento da Demanda por Produtos/Serviços 5.Requisitos Regulatórios 6.Impostos Corporativos (domésticos) 7.Inflação 8.Produtividade dos Funcionários 9.Acesso a Capital 10.Custo de Captação de Capital Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

3 Índice de Otimismo Empresarial Tendência Globais País/Região Respostas em Junho 2015 3 Nota: Os números representam valores médios para cada região ou país. Escala de 0-100. Índice de Otimismo sobre a Região/País Índice de Otimismo sobre a Própria Empresa Própria Empresa Otimismo de CFOs segue alto no México, muito baixo no Brasil. Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

4 Aumento Esperado de Preços 4 Preços de Productos Expectativas inflacionárias na América Latina variam entre países, com média de 3,2% Tendências GlobaisCenário em Jun 2015 Expectivas de inflação na A.L. são mais altas que na maioria das regiões mundiais  CFOs Latino-Americanos esperam aumento de 3,2% nos preços de serviços e produtos de suas companhias nos próximos 12 meses  CFOs na Europa, EUA e Ásia esperam baixa inflação ou inclusive deflação Expectativa de inflação alta no Brasil  Dos países participantes, o Brasil tem a mais alta expectativa de inflação  Expectativa de inflação baixa no Chile Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015 Nota: Dados apresentados são a média ou mediana dos valores para cada região ou país

5 Expectativa de Crescimento na Receita Tendências Globais Receita Bruta 5 CFOs Latino-Americanos esperam crescimento de 3,9% na receita bruta durante 2015, em linha com outras regiões, com exceção da Ásia Crescimento da receita cai um pouco  Expectativa de receita diminuiu moderadamente, em comparação a 4,2% do último trimestre  Europa terá o menor crescimento de receita Equador e México esperam crescimento mais rápido  Dentre os países participantes, Equador terá o mais rápido crescimento, seguido pelo México  Brasil espera redução da receita durante o próximo ano, o que é problemático dada a alta inflação Cenário em Jun 2015 Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015 Nota: Dados apresentados são a média ou mediana dos valores para cada região ou país

6 Tendências Globais Despesa de Capital 6 Aumento Esperado em Despesas de Capital Despesas de capital na América Latina serão nulas em média, reduzidas por Brasil e Chile Planos de gasto de capital seguem fracos  América Latina espera manutenção dos gastos dos negócios, inferior a outras regiões do mundo  Gastos dos negócios é forte nos Estados Unidos, África e Ásia Despesas das companhias variam na América Latina  Gastos de capital crescerão significativamente no Peru e México  Gastos são esperados a somente manterem-se ou diminuírem no Brasil e Chile Cenário em Jun 2015 Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015 Nota: Dados apresentados são a média ou mediana dos valores para cada região ou país

7 Tendências Globais 7 Expectativa de Lucros Lucro Expectativa de lucros diminui em relação ao último trimestre na América Latina Crescimento dos lucros é negativo neste trimestre  Crescimento dos lucros na América Latina é reduzido de 6,2% 2015T1 para perto de zero neste trimestre  Espera-se forte redução nos rendimentos na África. Nos EUA, Europa e Ásia, espera-se que o crescimento dos rendimentos siga moderado Lucros menores nos países latino americanos participantes  México, Peru e Equador esperam crescimento nos rendimentos  Expectativa dos rendimentos é negativa no Brasil, Chile e Colômbia Cenário em Jun 2015 Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015 Nota: Dados apresentados são a média ou mediana dos valores para cada região ou país

8 Tendências Globais # FT Employees 8 Aumento Moderado do Emprego Diretores Financeiros da América Latina não esperam um aumento no nível de emprego em 2015 Nível de emprego sem alterações na América Latina  CFOs na América Latina esperam baixo crescimento do emprego no próximo ano  Outras regiões esperam crescimento do emprego ao redor de 2,2%, com a Ásia tendo o maior crescimento Crescimento do emprego varia entre países da A.L.  Brasil e Chile esperam redução no nível de emprego  Nível de emprego crescerá fortemente no México, com taxa esperada de 7,9% Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015 Cenário em Jun 2015 Nota: Dados apresentados são a média ou mediana dos valores para cada região ou país

9 Slaários e Venciementos 9 Expectativa de Aumento Salarial Projeção de crescimento de 4,2% nos salários na América Latina Crescimento rápido nos salários de economias emergentes  Ásia e África esperam que salários aumentem mais de 5%, o que é maior do que a expectativa geral de inflação nas suas regiões  EUA e Europa esperam que salários cresçam aproximadamente 3% Crescimento real de salários é negativo no Brasil  Com inflação de produtos de 7,7% e crescimento de salários de 5,2%, haverá perda do poder de compra. Salários reais se mantém no Peru  No Chile, México e Colômbia, é provável que salários aumentem Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015 Tendências Globais Cenário em Jun 2015 Nota: Dados apresentados são a média ou mediana dos valores para cada região ou país

10 Hacking e Segurança de Dados Corporativos 10 No seu conhecimento, já houve alguma tentativa exitosa de hackers entrarem nos seus sistemas para roubar, alterar ou publicar dados importantes? Mais de 80% das companhias em todas as regiões tiveram alguma atividade de hackers  82% das firmas norte-americanas já foram “hackeadas”, a menor taxa do mundo  87.3% das firmas na América Latina já foram “hackeadas”, atrás somente da Europa (92%) Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

11 Ações tomadas na América Latina para reduzir “Hacking” 11 Empresas Latino-Americanas têm tomado ações para prevenir “hacking”  Muitas empresas instalaram novos softwares para fortalecer segurança de dados, outras requisitaram treinamento dos funcionários e adquiriram hardware  Em relação às empresas dos EUA, é menos provável que empresas Latino-Americanas contratem um “ataque amigável” para determinar falhas no sistema (18.9% para EUA vs 5.9% para Am. Latina) Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

12 Probabilidade de Recessão 12 Na sua opinião, qual é a probabilidade de haver recessão até o final de 2015 no seu país? América Latina tem a maior probabilidade de recessão, seguida pela África  CFOs brasileiros acreditam que é extremamente provável que haja recessão em 2015  Exceto o Chile, países da América Latina acreditam que sua probabilidade de recessão é maior que a dos EUA Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

13 Foco do CFO 13 Qual deve ser o foco do CFO para melhor servir os stakeholders? A maioria dos CFOs na América Latina acredita que focar em Orçamentos e Projeções irá melhor servir todos stakeholders  Gerenciamento de Liquidez e Alocação de Capital também têm grande importância  Na maioria dos casos, CFOs acreditam que o foco deve ser projetando o futuro, e não baseado em dados históricos Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

14 Retorno sobre Ativos (ROA) 14 Crescimento dos lucros varia entre países da América Latina É esperado cresimento das margens de lucro em todas as regiões, em relação às margens de 2014  CFOs na América Latina esperam melhora do ROA mais baixa do que no resto do mundo, com a expectativa brasileira de retorno sobre ativos sendo a pior Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

15 Duke/FGV CFO Survey na imprensa Latino Americana 15 Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina é frequentemente citada na imprensa Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

16 16 Duke/FGV CFO Survey na imprensa Latino Americana Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina é frequentemente citada na imprensa Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

17 Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Parte do Global Business Outlook 17 Uma pesquisa realizada por meio da parceria entre Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas e CFO magazine Perspectivas de Negócios na América Latina Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

18 OLD SLIDES 18 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

19 From December 2014 19 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

20 Important Qualities of Board Directors Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 20 Industry and C-level managing experience are expected qualities of board directors  In addition to industry experience and as a C-level manager, companies like directors who are outside- the-box thinkers.  People skills are also sought after. What are the most important qualities for members of your board of directors? (Choose 3)

21 Composition of the Board of Directors Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 21 Only 6.8% of Latin American firms have specific goals or guidelines for the mix of men/women/minorities on the board.  Many boards fall short of their gender and minority targets. What is the target (current) composition of your board for men, women and minorities?

22 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Percentage of Millennial Employees 22 To the best of your knowledge, approximately what percentage of your company's employees are “Millennials” (under the age of 35)? Asia has the highest percentage of Millennial workers, followed by Latin America.  In Asia, around 44% of the workforce are Millennials, followed by 41.8% in Latin America.  US and Europe have the lowest level of Millennial workers, fewer than 30%.  Chile has the lowest proportion of Millennial workers within L.A.

23 Advantages of Employing Millennials Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 23 Millennials are valued for their technological and creative abilities  Employing Millennials can save firm costs in terms of salary.  Few firms consider Millennials to be more efficient workers. What are the primary advantages of employing Millennials under age 35?

24 Challenges Related to Employing Millennials Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 24 Firms consider Millennials to be less loyal to the company and more interested in individual professional development than in the company  Millennials require more management oversight and demand changes in corporate culture  Around 10% of firms concerned about the Me-first attitude of Millennials. What are the primary challenges related to employing Millennials (under age 35)?

25 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Make Changes to Retain or Recruit Millennials 25 Has your company made any changes in an effort to retain or recruit Millennials (under age 35)? Asia and Latin America have implemented the most changes to recruit or retain Millennials.  More than 60% of Asian and Latin CFOs say they have made changes in an effort to retain or recruit Millennials, consistent with the fact that Millennials are a larger proportion of workforce in these regions.  US, African, and European firms are less accommodating to Millennials.

26 Changes Made to Retain or Recruit Millennials Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 26 Firms redefine work hours and implement social responsibility policies for Millennials.  Firms redefine work hours to be more flexible, implement social responsibility policy and redefine company culture to retain and recruit Millennials.  Firms also implement new training and mentoring programs for Millennials. Has your company made any of the following changes in an effort to retain or recruit Millennials (under age 35)? Among firms that have made changes:

27 From September 2014 27 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

28 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Percentage of Workforce Earning Minimum Wage 28 Approximately what percentage of your primary workforce currently earns minimum wage? Asia has the highest percentage of workers earning minimum wage, followed by Africa.  Asia has more than 37% of the workforce earning minimum wage, followed by Africa’s 15.1%  About 8% of Latin America workers earn minimum wage, similar to the US and Europe.  Brazil has the lowest proportion of workers earning minimum wage.

29 Effect of Increasing Minimum Wage Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 29 Increasing the minimum wage would have multiple, offsetting effects  Firms would shift away from labor towards machines and pass the higher wages along to consumers in the form of higher product prices.  Higher wages would also increase worker productivity and employee turnover For your primary workforce, what would be the effect on your firm if the required minimum wage per hour were to increase by 40%? Would your company...

30 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Labor-Reducing Capital Investments 30 Has your company made or are you planning to make capital investments aimed at reducing the amount of labor needed at your company? Latin America has the highest intention to switch to labor-saving technologies  55% of the Latin CFOs say they have made or plan to make capital investment aimed at reducing the amount of labor needed, in effect shifting from labor towards robots  African CFOs have the least intention to switch to labor-saving technologies, perhaps reflecting low African wages. Protective labor laws reduce labor-saving techniques in Europe.

31 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Political Contributions 31 Does your company make political contributions? (Reported data are for firms located in countries that allow corporate political contributions) Most firms in emerging economies do not make political contributions  More than 50% of the European firms make political contributions, according to the survey respondents.  Latin American firms has the lowest rate of making political contributions.

32 Reasons for Making Political Contributions Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 32 What are the most important reasons that your company makes political contributions?

33 Managing Corporate Tax Exposure Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 33 Companies overwhelmingly agree that managing corporate tax exposure is important  Taxes affect business strategies and where to locate operations Do you Agree or Disagree the following statements about managing your company's corporate tax exposure.

34 From June 2014 34 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

35 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Intention to Deploy Cash Reserves 35 Is it likely that your firm will begin to deploy its cash reserves during the next 12 months? Most firms in emerging economies expect to use their cash reserves in the coming year  Due to good long-run investment opportunities, 72% of Latin American firms will deploy cash reserves  Only about half of US and European companies will spend out of cash reserves in the coming year

36 If deploying cash reserves, on what? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 36 72% of Latin American firms plan to spend their cash reserves in the next 12 months. Among these firms …  More than half will use the cash for business spending and investment, one-fourth to make acquisitions  Nearly 40% will use excess cash to pay down debt.  More than one-fourth need cash to cover operating losses or purchase raw materials

37 If not deploying cash, why not? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 37 28% of Latin American firms are NOT planning to spend cash reserves. Among these firms …  Nearly 30% say they lack excess cash to spend; another 30% say they have alternative sources of funds  Nearly 30% also indicate that they need to hold their cash reserve in case a liquidity need arises

38 Explicit Target for Cash 38 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 As your firm decides how much cash to hold, do you have an explicit "target" or "range" for the amount of cash and marketable securities to hold? About half of LA and Asian firms indicate that they maintain a specific target for how much cash to hold  Though not shown on this graph, if cash drifts below the target, they quickly try to increase cash holdings  If cash accumulates above the cash target, most LA firms move only slowly to decrease cash holdings

39 39 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Russian Business Connections in Latin America Has your company reduced your Russian-related activity? Though not shown on this graph, Latin American businesses are the least exposed to Russia in the world  Left: Among surveyed firms, none indicated they have pulled out of Russia, only a few evaluating  Right: Few Latin American firms indicate that severe sanctions on Russia would harm their prospects What would the impact be on your country's economy if severe financial sanctions were imposed (including restrictions in intra- bank transactions through the SWIFT system) on Russia as a result of activity in Ukraine?

40 Labor Unrest 40 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Do you expect labor unrest (e.g,. strikes, work stoppages) to affect your country's economy over the next 12 months? Three-fourths of Latin American firms expect labor unrest during the next 12 months  LA concerns about labor unrest are by far the highest in the world; few US firms share this concern  Though not shown on this graph, Brazil (85%) has the highest concern about labor unrest of any surveyed country in the world

41 What is the cause of labor unrest? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 41 General problems associated with slowing economic growth are the biggest cause of labor unrest in LA  Wage pressures, in part due to high inflation, are the second biggest cause of unrest.  Working conditions are not a major concern in LA. Though not on the graph, poor working conditions lead to labor unrest in China. If you expect labor unrest (e.g,. strikes, work stoppages) to affect your country's economy over the next 12 month, the unrest is driven by?

42 From Mar 2014 42 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

43 Merger and Acquisition Activity Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 43 As a region, Latin American M&A potential activity trails that of the US, Europe & Asia. About 23% of Latam CFOs expect their firms to make an acquisition in the next year World-wide, slightly more than one-fourth of companies expect to acquire assets of another firm  M&A activity is comparatively lower in Latin America, especially in Peru where only 16% of firms expect to acquire. M&A activity will be highest in Europe and lowest in AFrica.  European firms are the most likely to plan an international acquisition. Among surveyed Latam firms, CFOs in Chile are the most likely to make a cross-border acquisition.

44 Where will cross-border acquisitions occur? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 44 International acquisitions in Latin America will target companies operating in another Latam country, followed by North American targets. Latam acquisitions mostly regional, overlooking Asia:  Latin American CFOS express very little if any interest in acquiring Asian firms, focusing instead on the Americas  The U.S./Canada is the region most likely to plan to acquire a Latin American target.  Most regions focus their international acquisitions on firms in their own continent

45 Effects of Tighter U.S. FED Monetary Policy Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 45 What effect, if any, has the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's plan to taper its quantitative easing program had on your company's optimism about its business prospects for 2014? Emerging economics are more wary of U.S. monetary tightening than are U.S. companies  Only 1-in-5 U.S. companies expects direct negative effects from the FED tightening monetary policy  More CFOs in emerging regions are wary of FED tightening, probably because higher U.S. interest rates may lead to either higher emerging economy interest rates and/or depreciated emerging country currencies

46 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Effects of Uncertain Economic Conditions 46 Does Uncertainty about Economic Conditions Affect Your Business Planning? Growing uncertainty about economic conditions slows hiring and spending plans  Because Latin American CFOs have grown more uncertain about economic prospects, many are adopting a “wait and see” attitude in their own business plans  More than half of Latam companies have reduced hiring and spending plans due to economic uncertainty

47 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Effects of Uncertainty About Government Policies 47 Does Uncertainty about Government Economic Policies Affect Your Business Planning? Growing uncertainty about government policies reduces hiring and business spending  Because Latin American CFOs have grown more uncertain about future government policies, many are adopting a “wait and see” attitude in their hiring and capital spending plans  Though not shown in this graph, concerns about government policies are acute in Chile and Brazil

48 Corporate Culture Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 48 In both Latin America and in the U.S., customer-orientation and integrity are two primary aspects of corporate culture More similarities than differences in Corporate Culture  Still, Latin American CFOs put somewhat more emphasis on results (near-term and strategic) and somewhat less emphasis on customer orientation and integrity.

49 Planned Changes to Corporate Culture Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 49 Latin American CFOs plan to put more emphasis on strategic (long-term) results  Nearly 30% of Latam companies indicate that they will increase strategic focus, while nearly 25% say more focus on customer orientation  Though not shown in the graph, most Latam CFOs say that it is very important for their employees to understand the corporate culture. What is the primary focus of changes in corporate culture among Latin American firms?

50 Real Estate Bubbles? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 50 Approximately 50% of Latin American CFOs believe there is a real-estate bubble in the region compared to 70% in Asia, and 90% in China Real Estate Bubbles are significant concerns in Latin America and Asia  More than half of CFOs in Brazil and Peru indicate that they believe there is a real estate bubble in their home countries. A bursting bubble like what occurred in the U.S. in 2008-2010 could slow economic growth  An astounding 90% of Chinese CFOs believe China has a real estate bubble, and (though not shown in the graph) 30% think the Chinese bubble will burst in 2014

51 Slides from March 2015 51 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

52 Merger and Acquisition Activity 52 As a region, plans for Latin American M&A activity trail that of other regions. About 13% of Latam CFOs expect their firms to make an acquisition in the next year World-wide, slightly more than one-fourth of companies expect to acquire assets of another firm  M&A activity is comparatively lower in Latin America, with only around 10% of firms expecting to acquire. M&A activity will be highest in Europe and Asia.  European firms are the most likely to plan an international acquisition. Among surveyed Latam firms, CFOs in Mexico and Peru are the most likely to make a cross-border acquisition. Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

53 Where will cross-border acquisitions occur? 53 International acquisitions in Latin America will target companies operating in North American targets, followed by companies in other L.A. countries and European countries Latam acquisitions mostly North American or regional, overlooking Asia:  Latin American CFOS express very little if any interest in acquiring Asian firms, focusing instead on the Americas  Firms in the U.S. and Canada represent the region most likely to plan to acquire a Latin American target.  Most regions focus their international acquisitions on firms in their own continent Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015

54 Composition of the Board of Directors Across the World 54 What is the target (current) composition of your board for men, women and minorities? United StatesEurope Asia Latin America Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015