REUNIÃO BRAMS 2016 Cachoeira Paulista Agosto de 2016.

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Transcrição da apresentação:

REUNIÃO BRAMS 2016 Cachoeira Paulista Agosto de 2016

SUMÁRIO 1.ETAPAS CONCLUÍDAS 2.ETAPAS EM ANDAMENTO 3.ETAPAS FUTURAS

1. ETAPAS CONCLUÍDAS ● Participação no projeto: “Evaluating aerosols impacts on Numerical Weather Prediction” (WMO/WGNE) Saulo Freitas; Maurício Zarzur; Valter Oliveira; Denis Eiras ● Início do Doutorado Créditos requeridos pela instituição - Exame de qualificação

Evaluating aerosols impacts on Numerical Weather This project aims to improve our understanding about the following questions: How important are aerosols for predicting the physical system (NWP, seasonal, climate) as distinct from predicting the aerosols themselves? How important is atmospheric model quality for air quality forecasting? What are the current capabilities of NWP models to simulate aerosol impacts on weather prediction?

Case Studies 1)Dust over Egypt: 4/2012 2) Pollution in China: 1/2013 3) Smoke in Brazil: 9/2012

Participants

Case 1 – Smoke in Brazil Quantitative evaluation for the SAMBBA case Parameters: 2-meter temperature. 10-meter wind (mag and direction) rainfall Observational data: meteo surface stations over S. America. Evaluated time period: 5 – 14 SEP, up to 240-hour forecast. DOMAIN of EVALUATION

RMSE and BIAS: 2-m Temperature RMSE/BIAS: 2-m Temperature (K) BIAS: dashed line RMSE: continuous line

Quantitative evaluation for the SAMBBA case Parameters: 2-meter temperature: more significant impact 10-meter wind (mag and direction): low impact Precipitation : low impact

Case 2- Extreme Pollution in Beijing January 2013 Forecasts –January –From 0 or 12 UTC –10 day forecasts Center of domain –116E, 40N Model configuration –Same as for NWP Direct & Indirect effects With updates from JMA

RMSE: 2-m Temperature (K)

BIAS: 2-m Temperature (K)

2. ETAPAS EM ANDAMENTO ● Elaboração projeto FAPESP (~ 50%) Prazo: set 2016 ● Escrevendo proposta para o Doutorado (~40%) Prazo: nov 2016 Impacto dos aerossóis de queimadas na previsão climática sazonal

3. ETAPAS FUTURAS ● Estágio Doutorado Sanduíche (2017) NASA/Goddard – Saulo Freitas ● Escrever o artigo/tese (2018.1) ● Defesa da tese(2018.2)

OBRIGADA!