S ÃO P AULO | R IO DE J ANEIRO | B RASÍLIA | C URITIBA | P ORTO A LEGRE | R ECIFE | B ELO H ORIZONT | L ONDON | L ISBON | S HANGHAI | M IAMI | B UENOS A IRES B ELO H ORIZONTE | L ONDON | L ISBON | S HANGHAI | M IAMI | B UENOS A IRES A N O VERVIEW OF B RAZIL P OST C RISIS D URVAL DE N ORONHA G OYOS J R. S ENIOR P ARTNER - N ORONHA A DVOGADOS P RESENTATION MADE FOR C ONNECTICUT T RADE M ISSION – A UGUST 10, 2009.
M AP OF B RAZIL
J UNE 30, B RAZIL P OST C RISIS BETTER BALANCE OF TRADE (6 MONTHS) US$ 11 billionUS$ 14 billion Domestic Car Sales per month per month Indebtness Sâo Paulo53%46% Average interest to consumer/month7,46%7,26% Average interest to companies4,36%4,12% Index Volume of Sales142 points154 points IBOVESPA points points Minimum WageR$ 415,00R$ 465,00 Source: O Estado de S. Paulo – 2 August 2009
J UNE 30, B RAZIL P OST C RISIS - II WORSE Index Industrial Stokes98,5 points94,5 points Use of Industrial Capacity85,4 %79,8% Monthly Production of Cars300,00284,000 Consumer Confidence111.7 points111,4 points Index Industrial Production136.1 points114 Unemployment Rate7,7%8,1% Source: O Estado de S. Paulo – 2 August 2009
5,4 7,8 7,5 3,5 -0,1 3,2 1,0 -0,5 4,7 5,3 4,4 3,4 0,0 0,3 4,3 1,3 2,7 1,1 5,7 5,1 4,5* 2,1 3,2 4,0 -4,3 -5,0 -3,0 -1,0 1,0 3,0 5,0 7,0 9, *2010* 1,0 B RAZIL S GPD Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE*Projection
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE GDP (Billion) ,0061,3001,378 Population (Million) GDP per capita (Thousand) 3,103,664,775,41 6,917,030 B RAZIL S GDP IN US$
7,0 6,0 3,5 0,5 0,4 -0,3 -0,5 -0,9 -1,0 -1,9 -2,0 -2,6 -2,8 -3,0 -3,3 -3,4 -3,5 -3,6 -4,0 -5,0 -6, China Índia Indonésia África do Sul Colômbia Chile Brasil Polônia Arábia Saudita Austrália Argentina Tailândia Turquia Canadá EUA França Portugal Holanda Hungria Coréia do Sul México Rep. Tcheca Espanha Itália Reino Unido Cingapura Taiwan Rússia Alemanha Japão Source: IMF GPD: IMF S P ROJECTIONS FOR 2009
F OREIGN D IRECT I NVESTMENT : O UTBOUND Source: Central Bank
F OREIGN D IRECT I NVESTMENT : I NBOUND Source: Central Bank * JAN - MAY/2009 US$ Billion
S OURCES OF E NERGY Source: Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy 86% 14% 55% 45%
1Saudi Arabia266 2Iran138 3Iraq115 4Kuwait104 5UAE97 6Brazil94 7Venezuela87 8Russia79 9Libya41 10Kazakhstan39 11Nigeria36 12USA29 Source: Oil & Gas Journal – January, 2008 In Billion of Barrels W ORLD ' S O IL R ESERVES
P OVERTY I N % O F T HE B RAZILIAN P OPULATION – 1992/2009 Source: CPS/FGV
M IDDLE C LASS IN % OF THE B RAZILIAN P OPULATION – 1992/2009
N UMBER O F M INIMUM W AGES R EQUIRED TO A CQUIRE A B ASIC C AR Source: MTE and DIEESE/PROCON
R EAL G ROWTH OF T HE M INIMUM W AGE – 1996/2010 Minimum Wage today in SP: R$ 465,00 *Considering the IPCA accumulated from June to May Source: MTE - CAGED
B RAZIL – I NFLATION R ATES Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE
E XCHANGE R ATES OF THE R EAL A GAINST THE US D OLLAR
Source: Central Bank * JUN/2009 D EVELOPMENT OF E XTERNAL D EBT YearGross Amount (US$ Billion)Net Amount (US$ Billion) , , , , , ,9165, ,4148, ,4115, ,686, ,212, ,2(-6,6) 2009*201,4(-7,8)
S ALARIES G ROWTH Main Metropolitan Areas: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, Recife e Porto Alegre. Source: IBGE
BNDS AND M ULTILATERAL A GENCIES BNDSIDBWorld Bank US$ Billion31/12/ /06/2008 Total Assets118,672,5233,6 Net Assets10,819,441,5 Net Profit2,3(22,0)1,5 Disbursement49,87,110,5 Return2,20%-0,03%0,70% Source: BNDS
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE U NEMPLOYMENT RATE IN B RAZIL
B RAZIL S TRADE B ALANCE – 1991/2010 Source: Central Bank *Estimate
B RAZIL S IMPORTS F ROM A SIA – 1989/2009 Source: Central Bank* Estimate
B RAZIL S E XPORTS TO A SIA – 1989/2009 Source: Central Bank * Data accumulated until May
B RAZIL S E XPORTS TO THE USA – 1995/2009 Source: Central Bank and SECEX
B RAZIL S E XPORTS TO C HINA – 1995/2009 Source: Central Bank and SECEX
P ARTICIPATION OF C OMMODITIES IN B RAZIL S E XPORTS Source: MDIC
Products Position between main exporters % of Total Global Exports Orange juice1º81% Poultry1º35% Sugar1º33% Coffee1º30% Tobacco1º27% Bovine Meat1º24% Ethanol1º13% Soy2º32% Soy Oil2º28% Pork3º11% Cotton3º5% Source: International Relations and Trade Institute - Icone Brasil B RAZILIAN T RADE IN A GRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
Source: Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock – CAN US$ Billion B RAZILIAN T RADE IN A GRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
DestinationsAgribusiness Exports (US$ million) Var. % 07/06 (b/a) Total Exp. (c) Increased Value % 2006 (a)2007 (b)Basic SemiManufactured 1.EU , ,43 14,5328,04 2. USA , ,55 19,70 60,75 3. China , ,69 29,23 3,09 4. Russia , ,37 30,72 4,92 5. Argentina , ,19 6,31 82,50 6. Japan , ,42 14,65 26,93 Source: Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock – CAN B RAZILIAN T RADE IN A GRICULTURAL PRODUCTS - II
B RAZIL S E XPORTS – P ARTICIPATION O F E MERGING C OUNTRIES
Brazils prevailing foreign policy doctrine recognizes the vulnerability of the country in a number of areas: Economic; Technological; Political; Commercial and Military. Source: Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs G ENERAL A SPECTS OF B RAZIL F OREIGN P OLICY F OREIGN P OLICY – G ENERAL A SPECTS
Brazils present foreign policy doctrine recommends alliances with other major developing countries such as : China, India, Russia and South Africa In order to minimize such vulnerabilities. Source: Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs G ENERAL A SPECTS OF B RAZIL F OREIGN P OLICY - II F OREIGN P OLICY – G ENERAL A SPECTS
M AP OF S OUTH A MERICA. São José do Rio Preto
Argentina Cristina Kirchner Uruguay Tabaré Vázquez Paraguay Fernando Lugo Chile Michelle Bachelet Bolivia Evo Morales Ecuador Rafael Correa Peru Alan Garcia Colombia Álvaro Uribe Venezuela Hugo Chávez Brazil Lula S OUTH A MERICAN P RESIDENTS
S OUTH A MERICAN E CONOMIES IN 2009/2010 F ORECASTS FOR GDP Country Argentina-3.5%0.5% Brazil1.0%4.5% Chile-1.2%2.7% Colombia-1.2%2.5% Venezuela-4.1%-2.7% Peru3.5%4.5% Ecuador-2.0%1.0% Uruguay1.3%2.0% Bolivia2.2%2.9% Paraguay0.5%1.5%
Main Regional Initiatives MERCOSULTRADE BLOCK UNASULPOLITICAL BLOCK ALBAVENEZUELAN INICIATIVE F OREIGN P OLICY – B RAZIL
C ONFLICTS AND D ISPUTES BETWEEN BRAZIL AND USA Ethanol Sugar Orange Juice TRADE BILATERAL Steel Shoes Agricultural Subsidies Cotton MULTILATERAL Agricultural Subsidies (WTO) Gasoline Dumping and offset act of 2000 Steel Brazil as plaintiff US Patents Code (10 cases) Silicon Metal Orange Juice Steel Products (2) Orange Juice (2)
C ONFLICTS AND D ISPUTES BETWEEN BRAZIL AND USA - II Car industry incentives USA as plaintiff Patent protection (3 cases) Minimum import prices REGIONAL FTAA
P OLITICAL DIFFERENCES MULTILATERAL REGIONAL
C O - OPERATION BETWEEN BRAZIL AND USA JUDICIAL ASSISTANCE Mutual legal assistance in minimal months 2001 NARCOTIC DRUGS Control of illicit drugs 1983 REGIONAL HAITI
Address: Alexandre Dumas, 1630 CEP: São Paulo SP Brazil Phone: (55-11) Fax: (55-11) (55 11) NORONHA ADVOGADOS Located in one of the main financial centers of the city, the São Paulo office is the head office of Noronha Advogados and the oldest, having been opened in June It concentrates the highest number of professionals and is the centre for the firms administrative and financial departments. Contact: Durval de Noronha Goyos Júnior Lilian Thomé
NORONHA ADVOGADOS
T HANK YOU ! D URVAL DE N ORONHA G OYOS J R.